Ahead of the byelection to Assam’s Nagaon Lok Sabha seat, the BJP has begun early preparations for the contest after former Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi crossed over to the saffron party, vacated the seat, and went on to win the 2026 Assam assembly elections on a BJP ticket.
The BJP has constituted a committee to manage and coordinate the byelection. The party is further energised after its sweeping victory in the Assam assembly elections, in which it won 82 seats, while the NDA collectively secured 102 of 126 seats.
The key question now is whether the BJP can win a seat it lost in 2024, particularly after Nagaon became a Muslim-majority constituency following the 2023 delimitation exercise. Of the roughly 18 lakh voters in the constituency, more than 55 per cent are Muslims.
A section of political analysts believes the BJP could find an opening if it succeeds in consolidating Hindu votes while indirectly encouraging independent Muslim candidates to split the minority vote. At the same time, some observers say the Congress faces a growing perception challenge of increasingly being seen as a 'Muslim party' in Assam.
If the Congress fields a Muslim candidate in Nagaon to consolidate minority votes, it could deepen that perception further. Of the 19 MLAs the Congress won in the recent assembly elections, 18 are Muslims. Similarly, among the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, the Congress currently holds only Dhubri, represented by Rakibul Hussain, which is also a Muslim-dominated constituency. "The party will need a lot of thinking on the Nagaon. If it gives a Hindu candidate, it may fear some fragmentation in the Muslim electorate. But anyway, Congress is expected to have an edge on the seat," a Congress leader commented.
Analysts say the Congress's Muslim representation of legislators has allowed the BJP to sharpen its narrative of Congress being a Muslim party nationally.
From 1999 to 2019, Nagaon was represented by BJP leader Rajen Gohain, who held the seat for two decades before Pradyut Bordoloi defeated the BJP in both 2019 and 2024.
However, the constituency underwent a major demographic and political transformation after the 2023 delimitation exercise. Three Muslim-majority Assembly segments, Samaguri, Rupahihat and Dhing were added from the erstwhile Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency, while three Hindu-majority segments, Hojai, Lumding and Barhampur, were shifted to the newly created Kaziranga Lok Sabha constituency.
This significantly altered the constituency’s composition, turning Nagaon into a Muslim-majority seat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, voter turnout stood at around 85.15 percent, with 15,50,628 votes cast out of 18,17,204 registered electors.
The AIUDF could also emerge as a factor if it decides to contest the byelection, potentially splitting Muslim votes and hurting the Congress. In the 2024 elections, the Congress secured over 50 percent of the vote share in Nagaon, while the BJP managed around 37 percent.
“The Congress can win the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat easily, but the BJP wants to snatch away what is almost within the Congress’ grasp. The BJP has bulldozed the Congress in Assam during the Assembly elections and now wants to replicate that performance in Nagaon as well. But it will be difficult,” a political analyst said.
