With elections in five states having been completed, the buzz over finally arming the BJP’s new president with a new team, and a rejig in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, has been getting louder.
Modi is set to chair a meeting of the Council of Ministers on Thursday, which has intensified speculation that the two long-awaited exercises are likely to be carried out. The meeting is expected to serve as a mid-term review and also convey the PM’s advice to ministries as the global oil crisis impacts India.
The cabinet rejig has been pending since the party picked 45-year-old Nitin Nabin to lead the BJP. There are a host of leaders senior to him who have delivered in terms of ensuring the party’s victories in elections, particularly in Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. While Nabin is expected to get a new team of leaders who will be given responsibilities, others may find a place in Modi’s cabinet.
PM Modi will complete 12 years in power on June 9, and two years into his third term. That is a time, sources argue, when changes can be made. The changes were deferred immediately after Nabin’s appointment in January, as it would have created different pressures and messaging ahead of the assembly elections in five states. Now, with these elections over, Modi is expected to make changes in his team.
But given the secrecy in their operations, the exact changes and timing will stay under wraps.
Among those expecting a call are party office-bearers who had responsibilities in Delhi, Bihar, Bengal and Assam, as the BJP won comprehensively in these states. Barring Assam, three states have BJP chief ministers for the first time. A large pool of BJP vice-presidents, general secretaries, secretaries, spokespersons and state in-charges is available for cabinet postings.
Another consideration for the party could be rewarding those who recently switched to the BJP, particularly from the AAP. This consideration gains strength as Punjab goes to the polls next year.
Among the other states going to polls next year are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Manipur. Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat are crucial for the party as they are prestige battles for the BJP. Leaders from Uttar Pradesh could be picked to send a message to particular communities. Already, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary has been made the BJP’s Uttar Pradesh president. The government may look for his replacement as he will be saddled with responsibilities during the polls.
There will be immediate pressure to accommodate faces from West Bengal after the BJP secured 206 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly.
But all eyes will be on whether Modi makes any changes in the top four portfolios, which have remained untouched in almost all past reshuffles. These include Defence, External Affairs, Home and Finance. They are the power centre of the Modi government, and are expected to stay the same.
There is also a sense, as seen in past rejigs, that some incumbent ministers could be changed.
Nabin dimension
The BJP, which prepares well in advance, will now set its sights on 2029. As the Modi government enters the second half of its third term from a position of relative political strength, the reshuffle will be its most visible statement of intent.
The new national president, Nitin Nabin, has been fortunate that the BJP has registered major victories in Bengal and Assam. He now needs a new team that can prepare for the next round of Assembly elections and the Lok Sabha polls. Those picked now will have nearly three years before the next general elections. Who makes it to his team will provide a peek into the BJP’s messaging and strategy. One message already being conveyed is that the party is betting on the next line of leaders in organisational and leadership roles. The BJP may attempt to bring down the average age of office-bearers and the Modi cabinet to send a message to young voters.
Another factor is representation for women leaders. The government unsuccessfully presented amendments related to women’s reservation in Parliament last month. As the issue gains renewed focus, the question is whether that will translate into an increase in the percentage of women in Modi’s cabinet and Nabin’s team.
