Assembly election campaigning is in full swing in Kerala, with the three leading fronts going all guns blazing. The incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), is looking to return to power for a third time under the proven leadership of veteran Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Meanwhile, the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) is hell-bent on ensuring that the communist alliance is defeated.
A high-octane contest is on the cards, with most opinion polls and pre-poll surveys calling it a contest too close to call. It is not going to be a cakewalk for either front, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is unlikely to challenge the duopoly of the two fronts in the southern state. However, the saffron camp stands a realistic chance of sending its members to the Kerala Assembly after a hiatus of five years — most predicted.
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Lokpoll provides a different picture. It has predicted a clear edge for the Congress-led UDF. Initially, in February, it had predicted that the opposition alliance would come to power in Kerala by winning 81 to 86 seats, while the LDF would shrink to 51 to 59 seats.
As per the survey, the NDA is not going to win more than a couple of seats. It has predicted that the UDF could poll up to 45 per cent of the votes, while the LDF will get 41 per cent.
It will be its performance in central and north Kerala that will help the alliance led by the Congress and the IUML to wrest power. But, it will fail to undo the upper hand that the LDF enjoys in south Kerala. As per the survey, the NDA has a chance of winning two seats from the southern districts.
However, a revised survey claims that the UDF is set to win 77 to 81 seats, while the LDF could win 58 to 62 seats. This change could be credited to the election machinery of the ruling alliance. The NDA's tally remains unchanged, even in the latest survey.
The survey also found that the Sabarimala gold heist case has significantly eroded the LDF's credibility. According to Lokpoll, as many as 300 people from each constituency were reached out to this month for the survey.
Earlier, the Manorama News-VMR Mega Election Survey said that the Congress-led UDF would emerge as front-runners in the Assembly elections, winning between 69 and 81 seats in the 140-seat Assembly. The Left Front is expected to win 57 to 69 seats.
The NDA is predicted to win one to five seats. The survey was conducted using approximately 90,000 samples across all 140 Assembly constituencies.
