Tamil Nadu elections: Seat-sharing deadlock tests AIADMK-BJP alliance

It has been almost 11 months since the opposition AIADMK and the BJP sealed their alliance in Tamil Nadu. After a press conference where he announced the tie-up, Union Home Minister Amit Shah went all the way to AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami’s residence in Chennai. Palaniswami hosted a dinner for Shah. A new bonhomie made the cadres of both parties cheer. 

But with just four more weeks to go for the assembly elections, the two parties remain locked in a stalemate over formal seat sharing. The negotiations, which began early in January, have turned into a silent tussle, making the AIADMK leader fly all the way to Delhi. This was his third visit to Delhi in the past three months to discuss strategy for the April 23 election with Shah.

The visit triggered a sharp reaction from Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and a silent dissatisfaction within the AIADMK. While Stalin was trying to drive home the DMK’s usual slogan that the Assembly election is a contest between “Tamil Nadu and NDA,” the AIADMK office bearers and cadres are also displeased as their party is losing in the perception battle. 

“This has never been part of our party culture. When Amma was our leader, she made the national leaders wait to meet her at Poes Garden. AIADMK is the larger partner, and we should be leading the alliance,” says a former minister and a senior AIADMK leader. 

EPS, however, defended his visit saying that Shah was busy due to the five-state election. Though he remains the chief ministerial face of the NDA, the stalemate in seat-sharing talks has led to several speculations doing the rounds. 

While the BJP cautiously calls the alliance NDA in Tamil Nadu, Palaniswami has been very careful in calling it an alliance led by the AIADMK. In a recent campaign rally, Palanisami made it categorical that the AIADMK leads the alliance and his party will form the government. 

During his three visits to the state in the past two months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “NDA will form the government.” The BJP has now ensured that it will lead the seat-sharing negotiations in the NDA, particularly with smaller allies such as the Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss led faction of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and G.K.Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC). The BJP leaders say that the aim is to consolidate the anti-DMK votes. Dhinakaran is already in Delhi to negotiate with the BJP leaders. 

Meanwhile, Union Minister Piyush Goyal, who was supposed to be in Chennai for the seat-sharing talks, chose to stay back in Delhi. Sources say that Dhinakaran had clearly indicated that the seats to the AMMK be allocated by the BJP and not the AIADMK. Dhinakaran is particular that the AMMK contests in 12 to 15 constituencies, predominantly in South Tamil Nadu, to retain his core votes and also the Cooker symbol. 

Sources indicate that the BJP had sought 54 constituencies, out of which 19 will be allocated to Dhinakaran and a few others in the NDA, like the fringe groups run by N.R. Dhanabalan, Thirumaran, John Pandian, and A.C. Shanmugam. It is said that the BJP wants to contest in at least one seat more than the Congress, which has been allocated 28 seats in the DMK alliance. The party is looking to field its candidates in 35 seats in its lotus symbol.