Learning from Bihar? Congress asserts 'big brother' role in Assam's electoral race

Three months ahead of the assembly elections in Assam, the Congress party has underlined the number of seats it intends to contest in the state, a positive start for the party, unlike in Bihar where it was ultimately unable to seal a seat-sharing deal and had to drag its feet for months to balance alliance politics with a powerful Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The grand old party has announced it will contest 100 of the 126 seats in Assam and share the remaining with its smaller alliance partners.

“In Bihar, the RJD had a dense cadre, more accepted leadership and much greater political weight compared to the Congress during negotiations. At the same time, Congress is a national heavyweight. Nobody wanted to cede their turf to another, leading to constant friction,” a political analyst said. “In Assam, smaller parties already know that Congress is the big brother and will lead the alliance without much resistance, which should help coordination.”

The Congress has roped in seven smaller parties, joining hands with the Jatiya Dal–Asom (JDA), Communist Party India (Marxist), Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal, Communist Party of India (CPI), CPI(ML), and the Karbi Anglong-based All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) to fight the assembly elections from a common platform.

Congress Assam unit president Gaurav Gogoi announced the number of seats the party will contest after an event in Tezpur marking the 141st Foundation Day of the Indian National Congress. He also said that if the Congress comes to power in the state, a separate law would be introduced to “take strict action against those spreading religious hatred."

However, this time the party will contest without the support of two key allies, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which had stitched together a pre-poll alliance with the Congress in the 2021 assembly elections. The AIUDF will contest separately in Muslim-dominated regions, while the BPF has realigned with its NDA partner, recalibrating the political dynamics in the state.

Both parties have a considerable support base in their respective areas. Notably, the AIUDF won 15 of the 20 seats it contested in alliance with the Congress, while the Bodoland People’s Front contested 12 seats and won four, down from 12 in the previous two assembly elections.

The Bodoland People’s Front began its electoral journey in the 2011 Assam assembly elections, surprising everyone by winning 12 of the 29 seats it contested, emerging as the third-largest party after the INC and AIUDF. In 2016, it joined the National Democratic Alliance, contested 16 seats, retained 12, and became part of the government. Ahead of the 2021 elections, it left the NDA to join the UPA but exited the alliance after a poor performance.

This time, the Congress appears firm in its choices. Speaking at the event, Gogoi attacked the BJP for creating unrest and promised to restore dignity to the people of Assam. “The Congress believes in peace and unity, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) thrives on unrest and division. The Congress has faith in the Constitution, whereas the BJP seeks to destroy democracy and establish a form of authoritarian rule,” Gogoi said, further alleging that the BJP is systematically snatching away people’s rights.

According to Congress leaders in the state, the poor cadre strength of the Congress is the party's major roadblock. However, they believe that the upcoming yatras of Rahul Gandhi will give the party direction and momentum, and also build a sentiment on the ground against the ruling government. "There is anti-incumbency, there is fear on the ground, and there is disruption among voters, if Congress is able to project itself as a strong force, we may be able to create a strong front," a senior Congress leader in Assam said.