Is TVK the new force in Tamil Nadu's Dravidian politics? Vijay positions his party as primary challenger to DMK

Emerging out of the shadows after the Karur tragedy, which led to the death of 41 people, actor and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leader Vijay, on November 5, made his first public appearance at the party’s special general council meeting convened at a swanky private hotel on the scenic East Coast Road in Chennai. In his 14-minute-long speech, Vijay quoted the Supreme Court’s interim order transferring the enquiry into the Karur stampede to the CBI and accused chief minister M.K. Stalin of “narrow-minded” political attacks.

But all that said, the special general council meeting and Vijay’s speech argued strongly that the Karur tragedy was a “temporary setback”, and it was engineered by their political rivals. “When nature and god in the form of the people of Tamil Nadu stand with us, who can stop our political activities?” Vijay asked the TVK general council members as they got into a fan frenzy moment.

As they cheered, Vijay continued holding his hands straight aside his shoulder and with his fingers folded, “The 2026 contest, I repeat, is only between two parties, TVK and the DMK; we will win 100 per cent.” 

Actor Vijay, since his first state conference at Vikravandi, has been positioning his TVK as the main anti-DMK force. Calling the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam as his political opponent, Vijay has always maintained that he is the only challenger in the state to the ruling DMK. And since then, every time he climbed up the stage, at his public meetings, or during his half-way abandoned roadshow campaigns, Vijay has been using a kind of symbolism that he is the only one possessing the magic wand to topple the DMK government.

Be it in his Madurai state conference or at the special general council meeting on Wednesday, though the direct attack has been on the DMK, Vijay has also chosen to target the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which controls the anti-DMK narrative in the state. At Madurai, he hit out directly at the AIADMK, saying all the MGR followers and the AIADMK cadres are anguished over the state of the party. He said the AIADMK cadres clearly know “whom to vote for” in the upcoming election. 

Despite such open attacks, after the Karur stampede, during one of his public rallies, AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami, indicated that the TVK will align with his party, and there will be a mega alliance to defeat the DMK. He pointed at the TVK party flags flying at his meetings. But days later, at the special general council meeting, the resolutions made it clear that Vijay will go it alone in the general election, and there will be no alliance with the AIADMK. 

Tamil Nadu’s political order since 1969 has been dominated by the two Dravidian majors - AIADMK and the DMK, who capture the major chunk of the votes. Each of them score anywhere between 65 and 70 per cent of the total votes polled during every election, while the remaining numbers are shared by the alternate forces, the newcomers and the fringe groups in the state. In the 2021 assembly elections, 1.32 crore voters in the age group of 18 to 29 years made 22 per cent of the total 6.4 crore electorate in Tamil Nadu. Vijay and his team think that those under the age of 40, mostly his frenzied fans, will vote for him this time and elect him as the chief minister. Thanks to Vijay’s charisma and the timing of his political plunge, which has given him the much-needed traction in the state’s political landscape. 

Is Vijay a primary force, and can he challenge the Dravidian majors?

The AIADMK, after breaking its alliance with the NDA in 2023, returned to its fold a few months before, creating internal squabbles within the alliance. With AIADMK’s entry, its existing allies chose to stay away or remain silent. The AIADMK combine in 2021, along with the BJP, which managed a 40 per cent vote share with just a margin of only 1 per cent in many of the constituencies, is still a strong force in the state. Though the party had suffered many setbacks in the recent past by way of rebellion and dismissals, the AIADMK, with its two leaves symbol, commands a larger vote share in the state. 

Though there is anti-incumbency against the DMK, the key question is whether Vijay can capitalise on his own and win more than 35 per cent votes to capture power.