Before the abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir had five seats, with one in Ladakh. Among these, three seats—Srinagar, Baramulla, and Anantnag—were in Kashmir, while Jammu and Udhampur represented Jammu. After the abrogation, the Delimitation Commission merged the Muslim majority districts of Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu with three districts of south Kashmir—Anantnag, Shopian, and Kulgam—to form a new Lok Sabha constituency, Anantnag-Rajouri.
Regional parties like the National Conference and People’s Democratic Party alleged that the move was politically motivated, orchestrated by the Bharatiya Janata Party to reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir from three to two and extend its influence into the region through Jammu’s Muslim majority Rajouri and Poonch, largely inhabited by Paharis, Gujjars, and Bakerwals (nomads).
The BJP's strategy to appeal to voters in Rajouri-Poonch, also known as Pir Panjal--the mountain range that separates Rajouri and Poonch from Kashmir--is focused on winning over the large Pahari-speaking population, along with three other communities including Gadda Brahmin, “Koli,” and Paddari Tribe by granting them Scheduled Tribe (ST) status.
While this approach did attract the Paharis to the BJP, it caused resentment among tribal Gujjars and Bakerwals. Despite the BJP's efforts to court these communities, actions such as anti-encroachment drives affecting many Gujjars in Jammu post-Article 370, civilian casualties in security forces' custody following militant attacks, and the granting of ST status to Paharis disillusioned Gujjars and Bakerwals with the BJP. The BJP has tried to placate the two communities by assuring them that their 10 per cent reservation quota will not be impacted by the ST status given to Paharis.
Gujjars and Bakerwals feel that Paharis and upper-caste Hindus like Gandda Brahmins and Sanis are undeserving of ST status. The BJP has tried hard to placate the Gujjars and Bakerwals and ensured their 10 per cent reservation is not impacted due to the ST status to Paharis and other three communities, and cites the implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA) in Jammu and Kashmir for the benefit of the Gujjar and Bakerwals. The two communities, however, are not impressed and argue that Paharis don’t qualify for the ST status as per the criteria governing the granting of ST status to any community. On the FRA, they say it’s not being implemented in Jammu and Kashmir like in other states.
The resentment among the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities significantly hindered the BJP's efforts to expand its influence in Kashmir. With 19 lakh voters in Rajouri-Poonch--11 lakh in south Kashmir, and eight lakh combined in Rajouri and Poonch--the BJP faces electoral challenges. The party's victory heavily relies on securing significant votes from south Kashmir, which seems unlikely. Realising the tough odds, the BJP opted not to field a candidate in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency. Similar challenges led Ghulam Nabi Azad to withdraw his nomination from the same constituency.
The fight in the constituency is mainly now between Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP and Mian Altaf of the NC. Both leaders are considered heavyweights and command significant influence in south Kashmir and across the Pir Panjal. While south Kashmir is largely considered a PDP territory, Mian, a five-time MLA, is a spiritual leader of the Gujjars. The NC also has some support in south Kashmir. The BJP’s decision to surrender the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat to the NC and the PDP came after Home Minister Amit Shah told a rally on April 17 that the BJP was not in a hurry to see the lotus bloom in Kashmir and would first concentrate on winning the hearts of the people of Kashmir. The BJP’s decision not to field any candidate in Anantnag-Rajouri, however, has demoralised its cadres and seen as a setback to its plans to enter Kashmir via the Mughal Road - the mountainous route that connects Pir Panjal to Kashmir; was first used by Mughals to reach Kashmir.
The BJP and some political parties have now sought rescheduling of the election in Anantnag-Rajouri citing bad weather and snowfall on the Mughal Road. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has sought a report from Chief Secretary Atal Dulloo and Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) P.K. Pole on road conditions, weather, and accessibility-related constraints on Anantnag-Poonch-Rajouri (APR) Parliamentary constituency, which is scheduled to go to polls in the third phase on May 7.
The representations for rescheduling were submitted separately by Ravinder Raina, UT BJP chief, Imran Reza Ansari (People’s Conference), Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari (Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party), J&K Nationalist People’s Front, Apni Party, Advocate Mohammad Saleem Parray, Ali Mohammad Wani, and Arsheed Ali Lone, both Independent candidates. The Election Commission has also called for detailed reports from the Secretary R&B, Chief Engineer Pir Panjal and Chief Engineer Mechanical-J&K on the road conditions, and traffic-related information from Deputy Commissioner, Poonch.
Mehbooba and NC Vice President Omar Abdullah have asked the ECI not to postpone polls in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat. “I appeal to the EC that such a step should not be taken. The demand for postponement is not from all parties. The weird thing is that some of the people who have written to the EC are not contesting. If I write to the EC about constituencies in Tamil Nadu etc. will they take notice,” Abdullah said in Srinagar.
In Surankote area of Poonch, Mehbooba said, “They all have ganged up against me because they do not want to see me in Parliament. The people, cutting across religious and party lines, are coming forward in my support and they are, therefore, using the Election Commission to defer and rig the elections.” The PDP leader said she travelled through the Mughal road which was recently opened for traffic. For now, the BJP’s plan to extend its reach to Kashmir has come a cropper. That in itself is a big relief and morale-boosting for the regional parties who have been struggling to protect their turf from the BJP.
