The Lok Sabha elections in Punjab are set for a four-cornered fight, after the BJP announced that it will contest the polls on all the 13 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress have already declared that they will contest alone in the state despite agreeing on seat-sharing in neighbouring Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Gujarat.
Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jhakhar's announcement came after the talks with Shiromani Akali Dal failed to bear fruit. The breakdown of talks apparently happened as the Akali Dal insisted on commitment from the BJP on several issues, including MSP and freeing of the jailed Sikhs.
The Akali Dal is undergoing an existential crisis following its performance in the last assembly elections in 2022, when the BJP and the Akalis had fought separately in the four-cornered fight. The Akali Dal could win only three seats, while the BJP won one. The Akali Dal had earlier walked out of the NDA alliance over the three farm laws. The AAP had swept the polls.
The loss of Akali Dal was attributed to angst against the mainstream parties following the year-long farmers' agitation. Akali Dal had to bear the brunt as it was a BJP ally in the past. The erosion of Akali Dal’s base among the farmers and Sikh voters was telling. This sent alarm bells ringing in the party that had celebrated 100 years of its existence.
Since then, Akali Dal supremo Sukhbir Badal had been on a mission to reunite all the factions of the Akalis, apologising to all who were miffed with him. In order to revive its party, the Akali Dal had to fall back on its Sikh Panthic agenda.
The BJP appears to be following the Haryana model where it broke alliance with the Dushyant Chautala’s JJP. It made strategic sense as contesting independently would divide the Jat votes in the state which the party felt it may not have got much. Now, the INLD, JJP and the Congress will vie for the Jat votes, while the BJP can focus on the Punjabi and the OBC votes which had previously powered it in the state.
Similarly, in Punjab, with the Akali Dal contesting independently, they will be wooing the Sikh voters, especially the Jat Sikhs and farmers, also wooed by the AAP and the Congress.
For BJP to contest alone, it makes electoral sense in the long run as it wants to emerge from the shadows of the Akali Dal which always got the bigger chunks of seats. During the last Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll, in 2023, where all main parties contested alone, the BJP got 15 per cent vote share, closely following Akali Dal’s 17 per cent, though the AAP won the elections. The BJP leaders were elated as they saw a big change where party flags were visible in the rural areas for the first time and it got an opportunity to engage directly with the voters without Akali’s help.
The BJP is also relying on the massive outreach undertaken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi towards Sikhs. After Centre’s decision, Veer Bal Diwas, commemorating the martyrdom of sons of 10th Sikh Guru Gobind Singh, was also observed at the state levels in the all party-ruled states. In January 2022, Modi had announced observing December 26 as Veer Baal Diwas. Modi has been leading the efforts to engage with the Sikh community as his government had taken several steps, including opening up of the Kartarpur Corridor, celebrating the birth anniversaries of Sikh Gurus.
The BJP has been building bridges with the community, inducting Sikh faces into the party, even including a former police officer-turned-politician, Iqbal Singh Lalpura, in the BJP’s highest decision-making body - the parliamentary board. Former Congress CM Amarinder Singh and his entire family, including his wife and Patiala MP, Preneet Kaur, had joined the party. Their family member may be given a ticket in the upcoming polls.
Ahead of the campaign for 2024 polls, the BJP has got many of its old allies back into the fold, including TDP. Akali Dal was its oldest ally and first one to support Modi’s candidature as a prime ministerial candidate.
The alliance between the Akali Dal and the BJP was hailed as an alliance in national interest as it kept the two communities – Sikhs and Hindus – close to each other after decades of militancy. As the alliance broke, there are apprehensions of polarisation. The BJP is now trying to increase its base among the Sikhs without the help of Akali Dal.
The AAP, too, is fighting for its survival after arrest of party chief Arvind Kejriwal.
Polling in the state is scheduled for June 1 – the last phase.
