After bonding with Bangladesh, courtesy foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, the next country on India's wooing list is Myanmar.
Myanmar, which is headed to polls in November, figured in the talks between Bangladesh and India on Tuesday, too. Especially, the rather thorny issue of rehabilitation of the Rohinyas. India has been working with both countries over this rather prickly subject—keeping the sensitivities of both countries in mind—to come to a happy solution. So far India is the only country in the region that is working in the Rakhine state and can use the word ‘rehabilitation’ of the Rohinyas with Myanmar without causing any offense.
The foreign secretary may be headed to Myanmar next to demonstrate India's deep commitment to the relationship. There is a lot at stake. Myanmar, is the only country in the region that has resisted China's money overtures. (It is also the only country where India and China are direct rivals in the fight for dominance). At a time when China is closing in on India's neighbourhood, India is keen to reach out to build stronger ties to ensure that Myanmar doesn't go the Nepal way.
On July 2, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of the Tatmadaw, in an interview, alleged that terrorist groups in the country were being backed by 'strong forces.'
It was clear who he was referring to: China. If there was any doubt, Myanmar military spokesperson Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, ended it. He clarified the army chief was referring to Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)--extremist groups active in the Rakhine State in western Myanmar that borders China. The attack by AA in 2019 on the military had been conducted by Chinese made weapons.
China, however, is also out to woo Myanmar. President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar at the beginning of the year in pre-pandemic times promising greater cooperation including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor as part of the Belt and Road initiative. However, there has been a growing disenchantment over China with the military. These concerns of a Chinese hand being behind the terrorist groups had been brought up when Xi visited. But nothing moved.
Courtesy the coronavirus pandemic, economic concerns have become dominant. Recently, the Myanmar auditor general Maw Than has raised alarm over loans from China that will force the country to go the Sri Lanka way. "The truth is the loans from China come at higher interest rates compared to loans from financial institutions like the World Bank or the IMF [International Monetary Fund]," he has been quoted as saying. "So, I would like to remind the government ministries to be more restrained in using Chinese loans."
The country has to repay as much as $500 million annually to China in both principal and interest, according to reports. There has been a certain caution when it comes to Chinese projects. A Swiss company has been hired to look at the Muse-Mandalay Electric Railway built by a Chinese company. Other projects too have become controversial and have attracted criticism, including plans of a new Yangon city—which is twice the size of Singapore--which has met with local protests over environmental concerns. Can India now take advantage?
The generals may be willing to looking beyond China, but Aung San Suu Kyi has slowly inched closer to China—now that her love affair with the West has soured. She will be the power behind the throne in the next government too. The question is can India woo her over a little more? The answer may be in speeding the Kaladan-multi-modal project—which India is building. Every romance needs a little gift to seal the deal.
