Delhi polls: AAP and BJP aside, what will the results mean for the Congress?

What are the implications if the party draws another blank like it did in 2015?

PTI11_26_2019_000071B Congress president Sonia Gandhi and MP Rahul Gandhi | PTI

Soon after the Delhi polls came to an end, the Congress rejected the exit poll projections. Almost all of them predicted little change in the fortunes of the Sonia Gandhi-helmed party, which had ruled the city between 1998 and 2013, but drew a blank in the 2015 polls. A combined 'poll of exit polls' conducted by NDTV had given 56 seats to AAP, 13 to the BJP and one to the Congress. There was little vote share difference for the grand old party when compared to 2015, when they won 9.8 per cent votes; in comparison, AAP had won 54.3 per cent, and the BJP 32 per cent. The AAP had scored an overwhelming victory then, winning 67 seats and reducing the BJP to three.

"Let others celebrate the exit poll results. I am confident that the results on February 11 will startle everyone," chief spokesperson of Delhi Congress, Mukesh Sharma, said. The party's Delhi unit president Subhash Chopra told reporters that all his party candidates contested with full strength. "There are at least 20 candidates of the Congress who were involved in keen triangular contests. We reject the exit poll results."

The Congress contested the Delhi Assembly polls in alliance with the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD). It fielded candidates in 66 seats, leaving four for the RJD. Ahead of the much-anticipated counting process today, it is a pertinent question to ask: What will the results mean for the grand old party? How did their electoral fortunes reach this turn? The Congress lethargy was palpable in the campaign trail. The BJP aggressively campaigned on the anti-CAA protests in Shaheen Bagh as a poll issue, while the AAP hardsold development. The Congress was conspicuous by its near absence.

Decline of the Congress

After 15 years under Sheila Dikshit, the AAP had usurped the Congress party's vote bank—mainly Muslims, dalits and the migrant population—six years ago in 2013. Since then, the Congress has struggled to make a comeback. And, administrative failures added to it. It took the party leadership months after Dikshit’s demise, in July 2019, to name her replacement. Finally, veteran Subhash Chopra, who was in the wilderness in the Dikshit era, was brought in to lead the party. That was not before there were lengthy push-and-pulls over younger leaders such as Ajay Maken and Arvinder Singh Lovely, and veterans like J.P. Aggarwal.

Dikshit's work for the national capital was the cornerstone of the Congress campaign. Seeking to tap into the goodwill for Dikshit, whom Delhiites credit for the capital’s transformation, the Congress is comparing the achievements of its erstwhile government with the “chaos and misrule” of today. Its slogan captures the sentiment—Dilli Bole Dil Se, Congress Phir Se (Delhi says with all its heart, Congress one more time). “Through our Halla Bol campaign and numerous protests, we have exposed the failings of the AAP government and the BJP regime at the Centre,” Chopra had told THE WEEK. “The people of Delhi recall the good work done by Congress governments.”

Focussing solely on the past achievements of Dikshit might not be the best idea. As a Congress leader told the Hindustan Times, the party lacked a credible face to take on Kejriwal. “We should have projected a face. Voters nowadays want to see the contenders for the chief minister’s post and accordingly take a call. We cannot fight the elections just on the basis of our legacy or history. Past is past. Voters want to know our future policies and plans for development of Delhi. In 2013, we lost because of water and electricity and the AAP is coming back to power in 2019 because of water and electricity,” he added.

Then, there were the issues of ticket distribution, followed by defections. While the party high command reported wanted senior leaders to contest, those leaders would rather have their kin take the expected loss. Ahead of the polls, veteran Delhi Congress leader Mahabal Mishra’s son Vinay had crossed over to the AAP on the eve of the elections; the AAP fielded him from Dwarka. In October 2019, four-time Congress MLA, and Sheila Dikshit's close aide, Parlad Singh Sawhney joined the AAP on Sunday in presence of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Sawhney will take on Alka Lamba in Chandni Chowk. 

How the Congress campaigned

The Congress, in the campaign, hit the AAP where it should hurt—the base of migrant and minority voters. Chopra visited Shaheen Bagh, the site of ongoing CAA protests, and met with injured agitators. Chief Minister Kejriwal was conspicuous in his silence on the issue, instead focussing all the rhetoric on development and bread-and-butter issues. The Congress move was done with an eye on the youth, the Muslims and the migrant population. “Why is Arvind Kejriwal not holding a dharna in support of the students of Jamia and JNU?” asked Delhi Congress leader Mukesh Sharma. “He cannot shrug off responsibility by simply saying that the Delhi Police is not with him.”

The Congress also put up a populist manifesto, promising to not implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the existing form of the National Population Register (NPR) if voted to power in Delhi. The Congress promised more benefits to the people of Delhi, namely 600 units of free electricity and an enhanced pension of 5,000 under the ‘Sheila Pension Yojana’. It has also promised free registry in unauthorised colonies. It promised cashback schemes for water and power consumers, if voted to power. The manifesto also committed to spend 25 per cent budget each year on fighting pollution and improving transport facilities. An unemployment allowance of Rs 5,000 for graduates and Rs 7,500 for post graduates per month will be provided under the Yuva Swabhiman Yojna, the manifesto said. The Congress manifesto also promised 100 Indira Canteens to provide subsidised meals at Rs 15.

MP Rahul Gandhi, during his campaigns, accused the BJP and AAP of spreading hatred in the society. He also accused the Centre of selling state enterprises such as IndianOil, Air India, Hindustan Petroleum and the railways as well as the Red Fort, and said, "He (Modi) may even sell the Taj Mahal". Rahul Gandhi alleged that Modi and Kejriwal were not interested in providing jobs to youngsters, but were keen on making one Indian fight another for staying in power. He said the current environment in the country, the hatred, the violence and the attacks on women were harming India and people were not benefitting from it. "Modi and the BJP may be benefitting from it, but Indians are not. If you want development and employment, you will have to erase hatred from the hearts of people," the former Congress president told a party rally in Jangpura.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra trained her guns on Modi over the issue of job losses, and took a dig at his sanyog-prayog remarks on Shaheen Bagh, the epicentre of anti-CAA protests in Delhi, asking whether the rise in unemployment was a coincidence or his experiment. At a poll rally on Monday, Modi said the protests against the new citizenship law in Shaheen Bagh and other areas here are not a coincidence but an "experiment" ('sanyog nahi prayog') and a political conspiracy to destroy the country's harmony.

What the defeat will mean

The Congress had found a glimmer of hope in the Lok Sabha election, where it managed to emerge as the number two party in five out of seven seats, pushing the AAP to the third spot in these constituencies. Another deafening defeat (or in the worst case, another blank) will mean a trip back to the drawing board, and back to square one for the grand old party.

-Inputs from Soni Mishra