The BJP may not have won the Chengannur bypoll in Kerala—in fact, it came in third, behind winners CPI(M)-LDF and the Congress-led UDF—but it has reasons to feel optimistic.
The biggest loser, in fact, in this bypoll is the Congress, rather than the BJP.
The Congress did come second by gaining around 2,000 more votes than the last election and also ensured that the BJP votes fell by some 7,000 odd votes compared to the 2016 elections.
But if Chengannur bypoll verdict is a harbinger of things to come, the BJP has reasons to feel confident while the Congress party in Kerala has a lot to worry about.
Primarily, the Chengannur results have reiterated the much suspected possibility that the Congress is losing out on its minority community votes to the CPI(M) and the majority community votes to the BJP.
also read
- Decoding Kerala govt’s move to screen films without censor exemption at IFFK: Bold stand or attempt to hide administrative lapse?
- ‘I lost faith in the trial court’: Kerala actress assault case survivor breaks silence on judgment
- Kerala local polls: BJP snatches LDF fortress Thiruvananthapuram, UDF surprised by its own over-performance
- Kerala local body election results | How BJP-led NDA won Thiruvananthapuram: A look at 7 key factors
- What actions are NHAI taking following recent NH-66 failures in Kerala?
Chengannur had traditionally been a Congress stronghold, thanks to the dominance of Nair and Christian voters. That the Congress party lost out to CPI(M) despite its aggressive campaign does not augur well for the party. The party lost despite the fact that its tallest leader Oommen Chandy had camped in the constituency to ensure that Vijayakumar—his protege—wins the election.
The Congress was highly hopeful of winning back the seat, which it lost last time because of the strong performance of the BJP's Sreedharan Pillai.
“We lost last time because the BJP managed to attract voters who used to vote for us traditionally. But this time, we would ensure that they all will come back,'' Congress candidate Vijayakumar had said during the campaign.
But, obviously, it did not happen, if the voting pattern is anything to go by.
That the BJP managed over 35,000 votes is a huge thing in the state's political scenario. This vote share is despite the fact that all its partners, including the big shot BDJS were sulking.
“That the BJP managed to get these many votes despite the fact that its state president was removed just a few days ahead of the election, should be an eye-opener to both the Congress and the CPI(M). Those votes are entirely BJP votes and not from any ally. It is a reality that is bound to give headaches to the opponents, especially the Congress party,'' said K. Udayakumar, political observer.
The personality of the BJP candidate Sreedharan Pillai also may have helped.
And if there is one party who is happy about the BJP surge, it is the CPI(M).
First, because it is definitely eating into the Congress vote share. This was proved when a CPI(M) state committee member told The WEEK that this high victory margin was possible because of the high BJP vote share. “We were sure about the victory of Saji Cherian. But the high margin became possible only because the BJP managed to get more than 20,000 votes. All these votes have been traditionally Congress votes,'' he said.
Second, the minorities, increasingly perturbed by the BJP, looks up to the CPI(M) rather than the Congress to put up a strong fight. “We would not have managed this majority without the support of the minority communities. We feel especially happy about this,'' said the CPI(M) leader.
The CPI(M) has wrested all minority-dominated segments in the constituency from the Congress, he pointed out.
Chengannur is a slice of Kerala, especially south Kerala, with a good representation of all the communities. All major communities like the Nair, Ezhava, Christian and Muslims have a good influence in this constituency.
No wonder, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was so buoyant when he said: “Chenganoor shows how Kerala thinks.”
It goes without saying that the victory has reinforced Pinarayi Vijayan's complete domination in the party and the government, especially because the opposition had time and again said that this election would be a referendum on the Pinarayi Vijayan government.
“This election result is a reply to all those who spread rumours against this government. The verdict has proved that people do not carried away by the gossip-mongers. They go by the performance of the government,” Pinarayi Vijayan said immediately after the results were out.
On the other hand, a flustered Congress has started the blame game. While the former KPCC president V.M. Sudheeran has demanded an introspection, Vijayakumar has said that he lost due to infighting. It is ironic to see senior leaders like A.K. Antony are trying to find respite in the fact that the party managed to get more votes this time compared to 2016.
“The BJP is the only party which has lost votes compared to the previous election. Though we have lost the election, we got more than 2,000 votes this time,” Antony said.
If the Congress refuses to go into introspection mode even after losing in party strongholds dominated by opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala and former Kerala chief Minister Oommen Chandy, then the party is in for some serious trouble.