India's fertility transition continues to deepen, with fresh data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) showing that Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat have all remained below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years stood at 1.8 in Maharashtra, 1.8 in Karnataka, and 1.9 in Gujarat, according to the latest round of the survey conducted in 2023-24.
While the figures indicate relative stability since NFHS-5 (2019-21), they also underscore how rapidly fertility levels have fallen in some of India's most economically dynamic states.
The replacement level of fertility is generally pegged at 2.1 children per woman, the level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without migration.
When fertility remains below this threshold over a prolonged period, populations eventually begin ageing and, in some cases, shrinking.
Among the three states, Maharashtra's fertility rate declined from 1.7 in NFHS-5 to 1.8 in NFHS-6, while Karnataka remained unchanged at 1.8. Gujarat also held steady at 1.9. Despite minor fluctuations, all three states continue to record fertility levels significantly below replacement rate.
The survey also reveals notable urban-rural differences. In Maharashtra, the TFR was 1.6 in urban areas and 1.9 in rural areas. Karnataka recorded a similar divide, with 1.7 in urban areas and 1.8 in rural areas. Gujarat showed the widest gap, with fertility at 1.7 in urban areas compared to 2.0 in rural areas.
Experts attribute the sustained decline to a combination of factors, including higher female literacy, increasing participation of women in education and employment, delayed marriages, wider access to contraception and changing aspirations among younger families.
Dr Ankita Kaushal, Consultant - Fertility & IVF Specialist, Motherhood Fertility & IVF, Navi Mumbai says “Currently, not only females are experiencing fertility-related issues but even males too. There is a distressing decline in sperm count among men aged 25-40 due to factors such as environmental pollution, poor diet inclusive of processed foods, sedentary lifestyles involving the absence of physical activity, prolonged sitting, and stress because of personal or professional reasons.
The NFHS-6 data appears to support this trend. Among women aged 15-49 years, the proportion with ten or more years of schooling stood at 55.4 per cent in Maharashtra, 57.6 per cent in Karnataka, and 38.6 per cent in Gujarat.
Internet use among women has also risen substantially across the three states, a marker often associated with greater access to information and health services.
At the same time, early marriage rates have continued to decline. The proportion of women aged 20-24 years who were married before the age of 18 was 19.7 per cent in Maharashtra, 15.3 per cent in Karnataka, and 18 per cent in Gujarat, all lower than historical levels recorded in previous decades.
Family planning adoption remains high. Any modern method of contraception was reported by 66.7 per cent of currently married women in Maharashtra, 63.2 per cent in Karnataka, and 51.6 per cent in Gujarat.
Demographers have long argued that India's population debate is increasingly shifting from concerns about high fertility to questions of ageing, labour-force composition and regional demographic imbalances. While some northern states continue to record relatively higher fertility rates, large parts of southern and western India have already entered a phase of sustained low fertility.
The latest NFHS findings suggest that Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat are firmly part of that transition. As families opt for fewer children and women marry later and stay in education longer, the demographic profile of these states is likely to undergo significant changes in the coming decades.
