Fight like Che Guevara’s guerrillas, or just desert? How will the Venezuelan military respond if US Army invades their country?

There is no question that the military capabilities of the United States cannot be compared with those of Venezuela. It is a mismatch of scale — like an ant against an elephant.

Donald Trump’s forces have conducted bomber flights near Venezuela, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, America’s most advanced aircraft carrier, was sent to the area. The Ford rounds off the largest build-up of US firepower in the region in generations. With its arrival, the Operation Southern Spear mission includes nearly a dozen Navy ships and about 12,000 sailors and Marines.

Trump’s team has weighed both military and non-military options with Venezuela, including covert action by the CIA.

If the Pentagon decides to send its troops to the shores of the South American country, how will Venezuela’s military react? Here is what we know from available reports:

As of 2020, the country is said to have 109,000 to 123,000 active personnel and another 8,000 reserves. It's Navy is made up of roughly 10,000 to 30,000 personnel -- including Marines and Coast Guard. However, the Venezuelan military is greatly underpaid. Desertions are often reported, and any news of an impending US invasion could cause more. Maduro is popular among the military higher-ups of the country by placing officers in government roles. But the lowly foot soldiers, with payments that hardly ensure their ends are met, have no moral loyalty to the regime.

Primarily, the country’s army in recent years has been used to confront unarmed civilians during protests. While Maduro has said there are 8 million civilians training in militias, Reuters has claimed, citing a source, that only thousands of intelligence personnel, armed ruling-party supporters, and militia members would be available for defensive action against the US.

Coming to the equipment side, the military’s assets — much of it Russian-made and decades old — are reportedly lacking for an international conflict. Caracas bought some 20 Sukhoi fighter jets in the 2000s, but they are considered inadequate in comparison with US B-2s, and Venezuela’s Russian-made helicopters, tanks and shoulder-fired missiles are also outdated.

What is expected of Caracas?

According to reports, Venezuela plans to mount a guerrilla-style resistance or sow chaos in the event of a US air or ground attack. The response has been referenced publicly, though without details, by high-ranking officials, who refer to it as “prolonged resistance”, Reuters said. The plan is to involve small military units at more than 280 locations carrying out acts of sabotage and other guerrilla tactics.

Venezuela’s 5,000 Russian-made Igla missiles, praised by Maduro recently on state television, have already been deployed. Military orders are for units to disperse and hide at various locations if there is an attack, one source said.

Colombian guerrilla forces like the National Liberation Army operate in the west of Venezuela, which is also a hub for the cultivation of coca, the base ingredient in cocaine. Ruling-party supporters called colectivos, or collectives, often mobilise in motorcycle convoys to confront protesters. They are sometimes armed and can join ambush strikes against an invading army.