The Indian Meteorological Department on Friday confirmed the presence of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, warning that it could become stronger during the southwest monsoon season. In India, El Nino has been tied to a weaker monsoon. This has raised concerns about lower crop yields and higher food inflation amid ongoing global economic challenges.
"Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a further strengthening of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The southwest monsoon brings roughly 70 per cent of India's rainfall from June to September. Around 80 cm of rainfall is expected in the monsoon months, while the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall is 87 cm, according to IMD.
Is there a ray of hope amid El Nino threat?
The IMD pointed out that neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are likely to
persist through the end of the monsoon season. This climate pattern would result in warmer western Indian Ocean and cooler easter region, helping in transporting moisture to the subcontinent. This could offset the El Nino impact to an extent.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency also said that potential development of IOD in July could offset the El Nino impact on India's monsoon. Meteorologists also point out that though all severe droughts are pinned on El Nino, not every El Nino result in weak rainfall.
The weather forecast comes as India's retail inflation surged to 3.93 per cent in May from 3.48 per cent in Aprol, thanks to rising fuel and food prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Prices of petrol, diesel, LPG, dairy, chemicals, fertilisers, auto, FMCG and durables have soared due to rising crude prices and disrupted global supply chain.
If the monsoon is below-normal, kharif crops, including rice, cotton and soybeans might see low yield. This could constrict food supplies and result in surge in further surge in food prices.
With roughly 50 per cent of the Indian population relying on agriculture for livelihood, a weak monsoon could negatively impact rural incomes and spending. While the threat of El Nino looms large, it remains to be seen what the rain gods will play it out this monsoon.
