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RBI policy, global trends to dictate stock market this week: Analysts

The movement of the dollar index, US bond yields will also play an important role

RBI-governor-shaktikanta-das-PTI File photo of RBI governor Shaktikanta Das at a press conference in Mumbai | PTI

The RBI interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate the equity market, which is showing some signs of correction after a stellar run, this week, analysts said.

Besides, investors will also track the movement of the dollar index and US bond yields this week, they said.

"The market will have an eye on the global data to get further direction. On the domestic front, we don't have many negative cues, but it will be important to listen to the commentary of the RBI governor in the upcoming policy scheduled on October 8, where what he says about inflation will be important," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

On October 8, TCS will announce its Q2 earnings, Meena said.

The movement of the dollar index and US bond yields will also play an important role in the direction of global markets while crude oil prices will have a major impact on Indian markets, he added.

"This week, the RBI is scheduled to announce its monetary policy. India's service PMI is also due to be released this week," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said.

During the last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark plunged 1,282.89 points, or 2.13 per cent. Market benchmarks faced losses for the fourth straight session on Friday.

Markets would also track movement of the rupee, Brent crude and FPI investments.

"The September correction in the US markets does highlight some developing risks—a surge in global inflation, oil and commodity prices, rising interest rates, Fed taper and the recent developments on the China front—which could create intermittent disruption in investor sentiment. Indian markets are currently richly valued and therefore not immune from some of these headwinds. However, given the strong earnings outlook trajectory, any meaningful correction in the equity markets can serve as an entry opportunity for long-term investors with a sufficiently long investment horizon," said Unmesh Kulkarni, Managing Director-Senior Advisor, Julius Baer India. 


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