As China enhances diplomatic and defence ties with Belarus, a close ally of Russia which is waging a war against Ukraine, Taiwan appears worried. Taiwanese experts believe that the growing Sino-Russian ties are likely to escalate tensions in the Indo-Pacific. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Lin Fei-fan, board member of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and former deputy secretary general of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party―he was in New Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue―said he wanted to see more progress in India-Taiwan relations.
Q/ The war in Ukraine is still going on. Do you see a conflict between China and Taiwan in the near future?
A/ The level of threat is reaching a different point compared with the past. Tensions have intensified not just in China’s relations with Taiwan, but also in its relations with other countries. The recent move of cooperation with Belarus and the growing relations with Russia will intensify tensions between China and other countries. The whole region is in an unstable situation. It is not because of Taiwan or the United States, but because of the autocratic mindset of the Chinese leaders and their desire to overturn the international order. What we need to watch out for is attempts by President Xi Jinping to divert attention away from their domestic situation, through international incidents. If Xi loses control because of domestic unrest and economic setbacks, whether he would divert attention by external conflicts is what we need to watch.
Q/ With House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy planning a visit to Taiwan, how do you see engagements with the US going forward?
A/ We have not seen a specific schedule of the speaker’s visit. Taiwan is an open democracy and we treasure our diplomatic and democratic relations with like-minded allies. Any sort of exchange that can help strengthen ties between democracies, we will definitely treasure that. We also acknowledge that China is trying to seize an opportunity to change the status quo in cross-strait relations. I believe that the DPP government will handle this situation very carefully.
Q/ How has Taiwan’s cooperation with the US increased in the past few months?
A/ We have very strong and close ties with the US. Just a few weeks ago, a Taiwanese delegation had a special channel of talks with high ranking officials in the United States. For the first time, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu travelled to Washington, DC and met senior officials.
Q/ What is the current military situation in the Taiwan Strait?
A/ In the past six months, China has been trying to make the breaking of the status quo as the “new normal” . Every day, we are witnessing Chinese aircraft invade our Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and violate the median line of the Taiwan Strait. According to China, there is no median line. The military situation has completely changed, but I would not say that it is the fallout of speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. In future, whenever there is any Taiwan-US collaboration, China will use different excuses to threaten us and launch different forms of attack.
Q/ Given India’s engagement with China on multiple fronts, do you see New Delhi becoming more receptive towards Taiwan’s concerns?
A/ There has been progress in the past one year and we see a positive shift in the attitude of the Indian government. While we cannot say that there has been a direct change in India’s position on China or Taiwan, we do see progress. I hope this could be the foundation for us to move forward and reach more areas of cooperation with the Indian government. Taiwan is one of the partners the Indian government and companies are trying to woo, especially in the semiconductor sector, but we need to build a foundation to achieve such economic cooperation. We believe that the FTA (free trade agreement) between India and Taiwan will not only provide a breakthrough in bilateral economic cooperation, but will also become the base for Indian industries to receive more investment from Taiwan. A lot of companies in Taiwan were investing in China, but they are now moving out as the prospects of the Chinese economy are not looking good.
