History is full of vain and venal leaders who wage wars, bankrupt nations to build magnificent castles or mint their faces on coins. They inflict disaster or become national jokes. Or both.
An extreme and cautionary early 20th century example is Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II. Despite his impeccable genealogy—grandson of Queen Victoria, cousin of King George V and Russian empress Alexandra—he wrecked royal bonds and international relations with insults, ultimatums, reckless decisions and bluff stratagems.
Donald Trump comes to mind. Several experts say Trump embodies the “madman theory”—making extreme threats to squeeze concessions. Associated with former US president Richard Nixon, the madman theory is a strategy outlined in Arthashastra. To be effective, coercive diplomacy or extreme brinkmanship must be used sparingly. Madman theory usually fails because the bully blinks, the victim resists tenaciously and if war erupts, then by definition the strategy has failed.
Kaiser Wilhelm II
In US Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory: From Nixon to Trump, historian James Boys notes Trump has more madman qualities than Nixon ever had because he is erratic and publicly confrontational. In his first term, Trump’s threat of “fire and fury, the likes of which the world has never seen” against North Korea, fizzled. In the second term, his show of force is repurposed against Iran, attacking and threatening horrific civilisational destruction. So far, Trump’s doctrine has often been marked by retreats, triggering the nickname, Taco (Trump always chickens out). He announced ceasefire extensions five times without getting any concessions from Iran.
A CNN investigation discloses Iran destroyed 16 of 18 American bases in the Middle East. The US invincibility in the region lay in ruins, emirs were aghast. American troops huddled in hotels for safety. Military experts say Iran targeted US bases with unprecedented accuracy, guided by high-resolution imagery from Chinese TEE-O1B earth-observation satellite and Russian AI-enabled fully autonomous weapons systems that found, selected and attacked US targets.
“Madmen” use the strategy against adversaries, not allies. Trump uses it not against China or Russia, but against NATO allies—threatening to invade Greenland and withdrawing thousands of American troops from Germany, Italy and Spain. This is in apparent retaliation to German chancellor’s comment that Iran had “humiliated” Trump. The US troop withdrawal from Europe benefits Vladimir Putin. It was announced after a 90-minute Trump-Putin phone conversation.
A century ago, allies were angry Wilhelm insulted the British: “You English are mad, mad, mad as March hares.” His “madness” was in another league, in seriousness and ridiculousness.
Historians say Wilhelm’s rudeness, eccentricities and insecurities arose from his limp left arm, damaged during birth. He over-compensated his deformity by being flamboyantly militaristic, dressing fastidiously in medal-studded uniform and sporting a luxuriant handlebar moustache. Apparently, strongmen fix and fixate over hair to project strength.
Notorious for his narcissism, Wilhelm’s militaristic moustache was upturned at the ends like “W” to represent his name, say critics. He slept with a leather strap “moustache trainer” that kept the waxed ends upright to make it iconic. And, so it was. In caricatures. A dwarf monkey was named after him. Swiss zoologist Émil Goeldi jokingly named a Brazilian simian species “Emperor Tamarin”. In the monkey’s absurdly outsized moustache that curled downwards, Goeldi saw mirror image of the monarch’s.
Wilhelm’s instability, recklessness, faux militarism and aggressive foreign policies contributed to World War I. Faced with military defeat and domestic rebellion, he had to abdicate. Leaving a legacy of suffering and satire, Wilhelm’s impact was historic. He was Germany’s last emperor.
Pratap is an author and journalist.