On February 18, a landmark diplomatic encounter unfolded in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as American and Russian diplomats sat down for their first face-to-face talks in years. The summit was led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It signalled Moscow’s confident re-emergence onto the global stage following nearly three years of isolation sparked by its invasion of Ukraine. For most observers of international politics, the move came as a big surprise. The New York Times, for instance, described the talks as a “head-spinning reset” in US-Russia relations, hinting at a potential thaw in the frosty ties between the two superpowers.
Historically, European nations such as France and Germany have played the role of intermediaries in such superpower dialogues. Yet their unwavering support for Ukraine may have prompted US President Donald Trump to bypass them in favour of a new broker: Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s neutrality and robust economic links with both Washington and Moscow positioned it as an ideal host for this high-stakes rendezvous.
The choice of Riyadh as the venue reflects Saudi Arabia’s ambitious push to elevate its diplomatic stature, a campaign spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Under his stewardship, Saudi Arabia appears keen to revive the cordial relationship it enjoyed with Trump during his first term, despite recently rebuffing his Gaza proposal for Palestinians and pausing efforts to normalise ties with Israel.
For decades, Saudi Arabia has reigned as the Arab world’s wealthiest and most influential state, but it has grown increasingly irked by the diplomatic nimbleness of some of its smaller neighbours like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which have stolen some of its geopolitical thunder. Qatar, for instance, has emerged as a pivotal player in Israel-Hamas negotiations, capitalising on its financial clout and diplomatic savvy—exemplified by its hosting of a Taliban office that paved the way for a 2020 peace accord under Trump’s watch.
Saudi Arabia’s suitability as a mediator stems from its unique geopolitical profile and its status as a heavyweight in global oil markets. A long-standing ally of the United States, the kingdom benefits from security assurances and military collaboration with Washington. Simultaneously, its partnership with Russia through the OPEC+ alliance has forged deep economic bonds.
This dual alignment was vividly illustrated in 2022, when Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly slashed oil production—ignoring the Biden administration’s appeals to boost output—sending global prices soaring and briefly souring relations with the US. This delicate balancing act has equipped Saudi Arabia to serve as a trusted conduit between Washington and Moscow, particularly at a time when the Ukraine war has strained superpower relations to breaking point.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has pivoted towards neutrality in international conflicts, a shift intricately linked to MbS’s flagship “Vision 2030” initiative to wean the economy off its reliance on oil. This ambitious blueprint demands a stable image to lure foreign investment, compelling the kingdom to recast itself as a peacemaker.
Its evolving stance in Yemen offers a case in point: after years of battling Iran-backed Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabia normalised relations with Tehran in 2023 through a China-brokered pact. Similarly, it mended fences with Qatar in 2021, ending a rancorous blockade which lasted three years. Riyadh has further burnished its diplomatic credentials by hosting peace summits, including an August 2023 conference on Ukraine attended by representatives from over 40 countries—though Russia notably declined to participate. The kingdom has also funnelled $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, underscoring its commitment to a balanced approach.
This neutral posture has cast Saudi Arabia as a plausible intermediary between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, both of whom share warm ties with MbS. During the 2018 fallout over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump stood by the crown prince, a loyalty later repaid when Saudi Arabia pumped $2 billion into a private equity firm led by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Further Trump-branded ventures are reportedly in the pipeline.
Putin, for his part, refrained from criticising MbS over the Khashoggi affair and has maintained a cooperative stance on oil policy, preserving amicable relations despite Western efforts to ostracise Moscow over Ukraine.
Hosting the talks represents a diplomatic coup for Saudi Arabia, advancing the kingdom's mission to transform its global image. Once seen primarily as an oil-rich nation tethered to a conservative religious past, the kingdom now aspires to be recognised as a sophisticated mediator on the world stage. This bolsters its soft power and prestige—key pillars of Vision 2030—and the strategy is already yielding dividends. Recently, MbS secured the release of Mark Fogel, an American teacher detained in Russia on cannabis possession charges, and facilitated prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia, showcasing Riyadh’s growing clout.
An intriguing subplot lies in the Middle Eastern implications of this mediation role. By brokering US-Russia talks, Saudi Arabia gains leverage that could prove invaluable in future negotiations over the postwar fate of Gaza. This dovetails with the kingdom’s long-standing involvement in regional peace initiatives and its broader ambition to shape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. Should it succeed in bridging divides here, Saudi Arabia could cement its position as a vital link between the United States and the Arab world on thorny issues like Gaza, amplifying its regional sway.
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic high-wire act has proven remarkably adept in today’s polarised world. By throwing its weight behind efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, MbS is banking political capital in Washington while propelling his vision of a modern, globally respected kingdom. The talks, though modest in scope at the moment, carry outsized significance. They mark not only a tentative step towards easing US-Russia tensions but also a bold statement of Saudi Arabia’s intent to carve out a central role in global affairs. It could also be the beginning of the end of the trans-Atlantic global order, dominated by the US-west Europe alliance, which has endured for the past 75 years.
For the United States, the meeting offered a chance to re-engage with Russia outside the traditional European framework, a move that aligns with Trump’s penchant for unconventional diplomacy. For Russia, it represented a crack in the wall of isolation imposed by the West, a chance to reassert its voice in international discourse.
For MbS, the stakes are high, but so are the rewards: a legacy as the architect of a new Saudi Arabia, one that commands respect not just in the Middle East but across the globe. As the world watches, the kingdom’s diplomatic renaissance may well be entering its most consequential chapter yet.