Why the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal could collapse anytime now

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, concluded on January 19 at the insistence of US President Donald Trump and outgoing president Joe Biden, could collapse any moment now. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reluctance to go ahead with a comprehensive peace plan, the pressure from the Israeli far right to push Palestinians out of their homeland, the reluctance of Hamas to give up arms and, of course, broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to the alarming situation. 

The ongoing crisis has been exacerbated by Trump's recent proposal to drive Palestinians out of Gaza and redevelop the region like a purely commercial real estate venture. Trump wants Gazans to move out voluntarily to neighbouring countries like Jordan and Egypt where new housing complexes will be built for them. The suggestion sparked widespread outrage, inviting frosty comments even from countries which are reliable American allies, like Saudi Arabia. While geopolitics is in play in Gaza, normal life remains nearly impossible for ordinary residents. In the absence of a major breakthrough in the coming days and weeks, Gaza could descend into yet another cycle of devastating violence.

One major reason behind the continued crisis is Netanyahu’s intransigent political stance, as he appears to be reluctant to extend the ceasefire. Ignoring sustained international pressure for a prolonged truce extending beyond the March deadline, Netanyahu seems adamant about finding more ways to undermine the ceasefire. For instance, he has delayed sending his representatives to Doha to discuss modalities for extending the truce. And when the delegation was finally despatched, it was given only a limited mandate. 

Netanyahu, clearly, is under pressure from his right-wing allies who prefer restarting military operations in Gaza as they believe that Hamas has not suffered any significant degradation of its capabilities. His far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich wants Hamas to release all hostages or face severe retaliatory measures, including a complete blockade of Gaza. Minister of Transport Miri Regev, a staunch Netanyahu ally, too, has called for an unconditional release of all hostages. Israeli hardline factions have been emboldened by Trump’s out-of-the-box vision for post-war Gaza, which envisages relocating Palestinians to neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Egypt. 

For Hamas, Trump’s intervention is an existential threat, as it can never agree to a forcible displacement of Palestinians from their homeland. The group has warned that any move in that direction would only strengthen its resolve to continue the fight against Israel, raising the spectre of another round of hostilities. King Abdullah II of Jordan, a key US ally, has unequivocally rejected the idea, warning that it could destabilise the region. After meeting Trump at the White House on February 11, the king “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians”. His statement on social media came hours after Trump repeated his earlier message that the US had the authority to take over Gaza. Egyptian officials, too, have pushed back against Trump’s comments. Trump, meanwhile, has warned Jordan and Egypt that if they could lose American aid if they did not go along with his plan. If he goes ahead with the threat, it would turn out to be a challenge for both countries as they continue to face financial instability. 

Despite the deteriorating situation, Hamas is unlikely to disarm or give up its control of Gaza. While it might consider a power-sharing arrangement with other Palestinian groups, including the Fatah, it wants to keep intact its military capabilities. 

Hamas has blamed Israel for not fulfilling its obligations under the clauses of the ceasefire, particularly about letting humanitarian aid into Gaza. It says that the amount of aid made available so far is insufficient to address the humanitarian catastrophe, a view echoed by international aid groups. Three weeks into the ceasefire, there are not enough supplies of food, fuel and medicines in Gaza. The infrastructure has crumbled completely and replacements like tents are being missed sorely. It puts immense pressure on Hamas to retaliate. No wonder Hamas has indicated the release of hostages could be delayed unless Israel stepped up humanitarian assistance. Trump and Netanyahu, in response, have said that any delay on this regard would have catastrophic consequences.