Earlier this year, an army veteran from Texas, who now teaches maths to seventh-grade students in a Dallas suburb, changed his name to 'Literally Anybody Else'. Dustin Ebey, 35, said he took the unusual step to take part in the presidential elections. He now needs to get 1.1 lakh voter signatures by next month to be on the ballot in Texas. Ebey said Texas needed at least three options in November: Joe Biden, Donald Trump and 'Literally Anybody Else'.
And he is not alone. Millions of Americans think that they deserve options beyond the two traditional candidates who would be on the ballot this fall.
A Gallup poll released in late March showed that 63 per cent of American voters felt that the Republican and Democratic parties were doing such a poor job that a third option was needed. No wonder, the presidential election this year is witnessing a surge in the number of “double haters''--voters who dislike both Biden and Trump. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that double haters make up around 20 per cent of the electorate. With the election likely to be decided on very thin margins in the swing states, double haters may have a significant sway in determining the fortunes of the leading candidates.
Nearly half of the double haters are prepared to either vote for a third candidate or sit this election out. Among the third-party/independent candidates, erstwhile Democrat Robert Kennedy Jr is polling at 21 per cent; Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 7 per cent and independent candidate Cornel West at 6 per cent.
In the 2020 elections, only only 3 per cent of the voters could be categorised as double haters, and Biden’s favourability ratings were much better then compared with that of Trump. A Times/Siena poll had given Biden a 52 per cent favourability rating in October 2020, which has come down to 38 per cent now. Only 43 per cent of Americans viewed Trump favourably back then, but he has marginally improved that to 45 per cent now.
The widespread discontent about a rematch between Biden and Trump has created a clear opening for a third-party candidacy. Apart from Kennedy, Stein and West, an organisation called ‘No Labels’ is trying to put together a national unity ticket, hoping to have a Democrat and a Republican on it.
Winning the presidential election, however, is beyond the third-party candidates and independents. The electoral college system makes it almost impossible for a presidential run without the support of the two major parties. Even if a candidate is popular nationally and wins millions of votes, he or she still needs to win enough individual states to get their electoral college votes and win the White House.
The best performance by a third-party candidate happened in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt and his Progressive Party won several major states such as California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Washington, defeating incumbent president William Howard Taft of the Republican Party. Yet, the ultimate winner that year was Woodrow Wilson, who won with 42 per cent of the popular vote and 435 electoral college votes. Roosevelt was a distant second with 88 electoral college votes and 27 per cent popular votes.
Another impressive performance by a third-party candidate came in 1948 when senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, representing the States' Rights Democratic Party (the party drew support from pro-Confederate groups in the South) won four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Alabama) and 39 electoral votes. In 1968, former Alabama governor George Wallace, the segregationist candidate representing the Independent American Party, won 46 electoral college votes, taking the southern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Since then, no other candidate has come really close to challenging the primacy of America's two-party system in any significant manner. But the case of two other candidates could point towards the impact they can have on election results. Many Republicans, for instance, still believe that after a hugely successful first term, George H.W. Bush would have defeated Bill Clinton and won a second term in 1992, but for the presence of independent candidate Ross Perot.
Fox News anchor Chris Wallace once said on national television that the only person he ever heard the Bush Senior speak ill of was Perot. When Perot entered the race, Bush had a comfortable lead over Clinton, so naturally, his target was the incumbent president. The self-made billionaire’s shrink-the-deficit platform hurt Bush more. Although Perot did not win a single state, he pulled nearly 20 per cent of the votes and Bush lost to Clinton.
Eight years later, the Democrats were at the receiving end of an insurgent independent run. In a tight election that came down to an even tighter Florida, they had to contend with Ralph Nader, a left-leaning lawyer and consumer advocate. Bush won Florida by just 537 votes, while Nader polled 97,488 votes there. The result was finally determined by a pro-Republican supreme court, which awarded the sunshine state to Bush by stopping the manual recount of contested ballots ordered by the state supreme court.
Bush was the first president since 1888 to win the White House, despite losing the popular vote. “Nader cost us that election,” said Biden, who was the senator from Delaware. Some Democrats also cite the example of 2016, when Stein may have aided Trump’s razor-thin victory by drawing many pro-Hillary votes in battleground states.
Democratic strategists are worried that in a close race, Biden has much to fear from third-party candidates than Trump does. Polls show that in a direct matchup with Trump, Biden has an edge, but Trump has the lead when third-party and independent candidates are thrown into the mix. Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki said third-party presidential candidates like Kennedy posed the biggest challenge to Biden’s chances.
Some key Democrats consider that to be an even bigger issue than concerns like the president’s age, inflation or immigration. It has, in fact, forced the Democrats to set up an official committee to counter what the party calls a “third-party threat” to Biden. Multiple super PACs are working to target third-party candidates, especially Kennedy. There are dedicated teams to troll Kennedy at events. There are also teams working on keeping candidates off the ballot in as many states as possible by uncovering any mistakes they must have committed in gathering and submitting voter signatures.
A big worry for the Biden camp is that the coalition of young progressives, Hispanics, women and Afro-American voters which ensured his victory appears fractured this time. The Gaza war is bleeding him support among the progressives and so are his environmental and economic policies. Many of those voters would consider a protest vote and opt for Kennedy, West or Stein. In a tight race, it could cost Biden a couple of swing states and potentially the presidency.
Surveys show support for Biden declining fast in key battlegrounds such as Michigan and Georgia. Kennedy, meanwhile, is improving in polls, and although he has so far qualified to be a candidate only in Utah, his growing support worries the Biden camp. For instance, he has mounted an intense campaign in southwestern swing states like Arizona and Nevada, where one in five voters are Hispanic. Biden's support among this key demographic is slipping and Kennedy seems to be improving. If he can get on the ballot and splinter Biden’s Hispanic coalition from 2020, there is a real chance of Trump winning both states and opening up a clear path to the White House.
Kennedy’s choice of Silicon Valley philanthropist Nicole Shanahan as his vice presidential candidate has surprised the Democrats. Shanahan is an attorney, entrepreneur and used to be a major Democratic donor. She was once married to the Google co-founder Sergey Brin. She could fund the campaign, and her selection could also attract more liberals and progressives. Adding to the concern is the decision by ‘No Labels’ to suspend their campaign and pivot to independent candidates, possibly Kennedy, already in the fray.
Even Trump thinks Kennedy is a threat to Biden. “Kennedy is great for MAGA,” he wrote a couple of days ago on Truth Social, his social media platform. “I love that he is running. I think he’s probably going to hurt Biden. I don’t see him hurting me.