For the past few days, reports about former first lady Michelle Obama emerging as the top contender to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate for presidency in the November elections have been doing rounds all over world media. What triggered the reports was a poll by Rasmussen Reports which found that 47 per cent of American voters think that the Democratic Party would ease Biden out and name a new candidate. The likely substitutes included Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. But the surprise leader of the pack was Michelle.
While Michelle has never shown any inclination towards any political office and has denied several times that she was interested in the top job, a couple of remarks she made earlier this year did not go unnoticed. She said she was terrified about a Republican win in November (in an indirect reference to Donald Trump) and that she was worried about the 2024 elections. Yet, despite her denials, Michelle remains perhaps the best candidate the Democrats could come up with as an alternative to Biden, but with a major caveat. It will work only if Biden agrees to step away on his own. Politically, it is virtually impossible to force Biden out so late in the campaign cycle. More importantly, the levers of power in the Democratic Party are all controlled by Biden loyalists. But if he agrees, then Michelle could be the party's standard bearer for a variety of reasons.
Race and gender
If Biden gives up his claim for a second term, the automatic choice to replace him would be Vice President Harris. But the Democrats are horrified about putting the Californian up, considering her abysmal numbers and underwhelming charisma. She is, in fact, behind Biden in all opinion polls and one of the key planks of the Republican campaign is that, should something happen to Biden, Americans will have to deal with Harris.
Despite being such a weak candidate, however, Harris cannot be pushed away easily, considering the demographic group she represents. It will, almost certainly alienate the Afro-American voters, especially women, who are such a solid voting bloc for the Democrats. Even a minor swing in this demographic against the Democratic ticket would sink the party's chances in multiple battleground states, ending any realistic chance of retaining power. Bringing Michelle in solves this dilemma for the Democratic Party. She is an Afro-American woman who came up the hard way from a blue collar Chicago neighbourhood joining Harvard Law, becoming a successful attorney, a popular organiser and a much-admired first lady.
The Obama machine
When Barack Obama launched his presidential bid back in 2007, not many people outside Chicago and Illinois knew him. But the rookie Afro-American senator built up a much-vaunted data-driven political machine that helped him win two presidential elections. At its peak, it rivalled or even dwarfed the Democratic establishment. An email list of millions of hardcore supporters, a network of committed activists and organisers, a goldmine of data-based details and an efficient fundraising system are all part of the well-oiled Obama machine. It is also blessed with a number of tried and tested political operatives who are fanatically loyal to the Obamas. Finally, the Obama voting coalition, which consists of young people, minorities and women, has the power to carry the nominee to victory. If Michelle plans to join the race, she will be armed with all these formidable advantages. And the enduring popularity and unrivalled charisma of Barack Obama will be an asset for the campaign.
Not being Biden
When Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, the joke was that he got the prize just for not being (George W.) Bush. During this election cycle, Michelle could present herself just as the non-Biden candidate because the concern of the Democratic electorate is largely about the president's age. Nearly 75 per cent of Americans have doubts about the president's cognitive skills. Special counsel Robert Hur's report questioning Biden's mental acuity coupled with the president's frequent slips of tongue have not helped. Michelle, at 60, is comparatively young, sharp and dynamic.
The Gaza war
This is an unexpected variable in the 2024 election cycle. Biden, despite his loathing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is a close friend of Israel and his administration has so far offered nearly unconditional support for Israel. It has alienated a large section of progressives in the Democratic Party and much of the college and university students. During the Michigan primary on February 28, more than a lakh Democratic voters chose the “uncommitted” column to show their opposition to Biden's Israel policy, which is clearly a warning sign for the Democrats heading into the general elections in November.
There is also a growing rift between the Biden and the Obamas over the issue. There have been multiple reports quoting former Obama officials saying that they felt Biden was not getting it right by giving Netanyahu a free hand. An Obama administration, they say, would have imposed more restrictions on the Israeli conduct before offering more military aid. Michelle, therefore, could be a rallying point for the liberals and progressives in the Democratic Party over the issue and they will be more than happy for her to be their nominee.
But, will a switch, even if Biden agrees, work? History offers some clues. Ironically, the last president to decline a second term was another Democrat, Lyndon B. Johnson, during the 1968 elections. The Vietnam war had made him hugely unpopular and in February that year he narrowly escaped loss in the New Hampshire primary. On March 31, a week before the Wisconsin primary, Johnson shocked the world by announcing his decision to drop out. As Britannica puts it, “suffering ill health, with his approval rating under 40 per cent and stung by the widespread opposition to his handling of the war, Johnson chose not to seek reelection”. All three points would apply to Biden as well, especially with the growing opposition to the Gaza war.
After Johnson dropped out, his vice president Hubert Humphrey announced his candidacy, but, as the primary season was nearly over, he had to endure a tough convention battle to win the nomination. Humphrey, however, lost the general elections to Republican candidate Richard Nixon, which should come as a warning for Biden and the Democratic establishment.