SIVASAGAR
Summer rain settles over Assam with quiet authority, turning the plains slick and green, easing the heat, and lending the landscape a composed, almost staged beauty. The transformation is unmistakable along National Highway 37 as it cuts through the wetlands of the Kaziranga National Park. Yet the calm is seasonal. In Upper Assam, where politics follows older loyalties shaped by the Ahom community, an opposition bloc led by the Congress is attempting a measured return.
The effort is fronted by three Gogois: Gaurav Gogoi, Jorhat MP and state Congress president; Akhil Gogoi, the firebrand legislator from Sivasagar and founder of the Raijor Dal; and Lurinjyoti Gogoi, founder of the Assam Jatiya Parishad and former general secretary of the All Assam Students’ Union. Together, they form an unusual alliance aimed at unseating Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. With roughly a third of Assam’s 126 assembly seats concentrated in this eastern Brahmaputra valley region, Upper Assam could decide whether this season of renewal is merely atmospheric or genuinely political.
The election is, at once, ideological, decisive and sharply polarised. Sarma has framed the contest in existential terms, repeatedly arguing that his government is protecting the state from ‘miyas’, a pejorative for Muslims of Bangladeshi origin, though often applied more broadly against Bengali-speaking Muslims. According to him, the election is nothing less than a struggle to preserve the identity and land of Assam and its indigenous communities.
The opposition offers a very different interpretation. It argues that public life is now marked by a climate of fear and intimidation, and invokes the promise of Natun Bor Asom, or ‘New Greater Assam’, a more inclusive vision of the state. The alliance is recasting the contest not simply as an electoral battle but as a referendum on the character of Assam’s democracy.
At Gohain Chuk in Sivasagar, a narrow road leads to a modest rented house filled with villagers who have travelled long distances by autorickshaw. Akhil Gogoi, 50, listens quietly as they voice their concerns. Groups of young men arrive to enrol in the Raijor Dal. A small yellow shawl bearing the party’s gas cylinder symbol is draped over each new member, followed by a photograph to mark the moment.
“Look at the enthusiasm, you can see it,” Akhil says as we travel through the villages of Sivasagar along his campaign trail. “I am a grassroots worker. The BJP will not win more than 13 seats in Upper Assam.”
Akhil won the last assembly election from Sivasagar while still in prison, becoming the first person in Assam to do so. A former peasant leader and RTI activist, he argues that much of what passes for development in Assam remains superficial, with bridge construction offering the only visible change. His party proposes transforming agriculture into a year-round activity, a shift he believes could fundamentally reshape land politics in the state.
Beyond his reputation as a fearless activist, Akhil commands deep affection among ordinary people. Wherever he goes, crowds gather. He dresses simply, often in rubber slippers, and prefers small, intimate meetings resembling family gatherings rather than conventional rallies. The party’s appeal is growing steadily: two Congress MLAs have already joined the Raijor Dal. Even Sarma has predicted it could become the principal opposition party by 2031.
Akhil projects a distinctly firebrand image within the alliance. Among his proudest interventions is the role he claims in the defeat of Badruddin Ajmal in Dhubri in the 2024 parliamentary elections, having campaigned across 44 locations in support of Congress candidate Rakibul Hussain, who won by a record margin of over a million votes.
If Akhil represents the aggressive edge, Gaurav Gogoi offers a contrasting style. The 43-year-old three-time MP, contesting an assembly election for the first time, presents a calm and gracious public persona. His Jorhat contest against senior legislator Hitendra Nath Hazarika has taken on the character of a dignified duel, with both candidates maintaining a tone of mutual respect.
Even when criticising the chief minister, Gaurav uses the word dangoria, an Assamese honorific, rather than harsher language. Though Sarma’s rallies draw large crowds, Gaurav, too, has begun attracting enthusiastic gatherings.
“The present government pressures women to attend political rallies simply to remain eligible for government schemes. When the opposition alliance comes to power, we will end this practice; beneficiaries will be selected unconditionally,” says Gaurav, the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate. “This election is about restoring the dignity of politics and freeing Assam from fear and intimidation. Politics has never been this polarised, and people are demanding change.”
The alliance structure reflects careful calculation. Raijor Dal is contesting 13 seats, while the Assam Jatiya Parishad, under Lurinjyoti Gogoi, fields candidates in ten constituencies, many of them younger, Gen-Z aspirants. Lurinjyoti, 48, contests from Khowang in Dibrugarh district. His prominence rose during the Citizenship Amendment Act protests of 2019, when his resignation as general secretary of the All Assam Students’ Union carried both symbolic and political weight, leading to the founding of the Assam Jatiya Parishad.
The 2021 elections revealed how sharply votes and seats can diverge. The NDA secured 44.5 per cent against the opposition’s 43.7, a gap of just 0.8 per cent. Yet that margin produced a 25-seat advantage. In 14 constituencies, the Congress lost by margins smaller than the combined votes of its now-allies. That arithmetic has shaped the current strategy, with Congress distancing itself from Badruddin Ajmal’s party to court Hindu and indigenous voters.
The NDA first broke into the northeast in 2016, toppling Tarun Gogoi’s Congress government. Sarma has since consolidated that position with considerable acumen. Whether three Gogois can disrupt that dominance remains the central question—one that Upper Assam may ultimately answer.