A superpower is an imperialist country which everywhere subjects other countries to its aggression, interference, control, subversion or plunder and strives for world hegemony,” said Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in a speech at the United Nations in 1974, when Mao Zedong was still alive. Deng said if China ever turned into a superpower, “the people of the world should identify her social imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it”. President Xi Jinping, however, seems to have dumped this vision for China. And his vision for the world, it seems, has little or no place for other countries.
China has crossed swords with anyone she has come across in the recent past. Is China testing its capacity to hold out all alone—while dealing with situations in Taiwan, South China Sea, Hong Kong, and allegations of malpractices in international trade, allegations of spreading the Wuhan Virus and the India-China border conflict, all at the same time? It seems to be an ideal time to carry out such an experiment as the rest of the world is reeling under the Covid-19 pandemic. It is possible that China also believes that the domestic politics of most democracies that have the muscle to contest China are in a splintered state, making the situation conducive for such an experiment. Viewed in this context, is the systematic escalation on the Sino-Indian border purely India-centric or is it part of an overall resetting of the world order by China?
The Sino-Indian boundary is classified into eastern, central (middle) and western sectors. China has never committed to a specific alignment in the western sector and has changed its stance a number of times. Border standoffs in the western and eastern sectors have taken place with increasing frequency in the recent years. So far, the dispute-settling mechanism has prevented any exchange of fire.
What explains the violent clash and the choice of Patrolling Point 14 on the Line of Actual Control close to where the Galwan River meets the Shyok River, for the clash on the night of June 15? This segment has not witnessed disputes in the past. The newly-constructed Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie road on the Indian side runs close to the LAC at this point. The Indian post at DBO is at an aerial distance of just about 10km from the Karakoram Pass. After making Ladakh a Union territory, voices have been raised about a relook at Gilgit-Baltistan. This changed scenario, combined with the DBO road which runs well inside the Indian territory, has changed the dynamics of threat perception in the areas of Karakoram, Gilgit-Baltistan and even the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. From China’s perspective, this area has become very crucial and had to be brought under the ambit of disputed areas and an opportunity was created making it appear as if it presented itself. Regarding the incident itself, while saluting our brave heroes, one finds it difficult not to condemn the apparent urge on the part of some people to treat such incidents like T20 contests. How can there be a tit-for-tat response on the part of the Army or the government just because the electronic media and ‘experts’ crave it?
An India-China armed conflict, even under the present heightened tension, appears most unlikely. But China can be expected to employ every possible trick, falling just short of war. The most dangerous of such tricks would be for China to do something short of war, for which no ‘short of war’ counter exists. Occupation of important unoccupied Indian territory falls into this category. Expect China to even activate the Arunachal sector at a suitable time as a subset of the present imbroglio. There is nothing stopping India from taking the initiative of activating the Arunachal border, if any advantage is perceived, by undertaking such an action.
Considering the mood prevailing around the world and our capabilities, India is in a position to hold fast militarily and make China blink first. All that is required is a united domestic approach.
The author is a former deputy chief of Army.
