Dr Joshy Jacob
The question is not if but when will the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) come to India. The virus outbreak was started via animal to human transmission, but it can also be transmitted from human to human by contact. The incubation period—the time from exposure to the virus and manifestation of symptoms—can be up to 14 days. Chinese authorities have suggested that 2019-nCoV can be transmitted during the incubation period before clinical symptoms appear.
The potential transmissibility of the virus, as measured by R0 (R nought) is approximately 3 to 4. This means that each infected person can infect, on an average, another three to four people.
The coronavirus causes acute respiratory infections. It is related to the deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) viruses. While MERS and SARS caused 30 per cent and 10 per cent deaths in infected people, respectively, death from 2019-nCoV hovers at around 3 to 5 per cent. This is just the beginning of this epidemic and the numbers could rise.
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In contrast with the response to SARS, China rapidly released the genomic sequence of the virus. This is significant because it enables rapid development of Reverse Transciptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) test for the virus worldwide.
India should avail RT-PCR test for 2019-nCoV at Indian Council Medical Research laboratories across the country for early diagnosis. The RT-PCR can be developed from scratch in less than three days and patient sample results can be obtained in less than a day. Once a positive case is identified, then India should get the same team that handled the Nipah virus outbreak in Kerala to spearhead the response. This team successfully contained Nipah virus that has no cure and kills more than 75 per cent of those infected.
—As told to Mini P. Thomas
Dr Jacob is professor of microbiology and immunology at the Emory School of Medicine, Atlanta