OPINION | ‘I didn’t promise anything’: Trump’s diplomacy of tariffs, coercion, and contempt

Even though the international community sees no clear end to the war in Iran, during his appearance on Meet the Press, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US was close to a deal with Iran. Trump’s rhetoric sounded characteristically unhinged: “We’re very close to a deal, or I’m going to blow the hell out of them.” This is something he often repeats despite major sticking points remaining between the two sides.

He said that he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions before a peace deal is reached; “Comes after,” he said. “If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking. Yeah.” The US president also said he wants to keep US troops in the Middle East until “completion” and that the US will seize and destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium, much of which is believed to be stored extremely deeply underground.

Past a hundred days and on to its 15th week, it's clear this war has lasted far longer than anyone anticipated, causing more than 7,000 deaths, mass displacement, and severe economic disruption driven by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil prices.

The human cost of US and Israeli strikes has been immense from the very first day when a school was hit in southern Iran, killing more than 160 children. Lebanon has borne the heaviest toll, more than 3,500 dead, as Israel escalates its offensive against Iran's proxy, Hezbollah. More than a million Lebanese people have been displaced, and Israel now occupies nearly a fifth of the country after making its deepest advance in more than two decades.

Iran itself has lost nearly as many people, with dozens also killed in Gulf states and in Israel. US military bases have also been the target of attacks, and more than a dozen US service members have been killed. He had earlier admitted that his administration had “projected four to 5 weeks,” but despite a fragile ceasefire, fighting continued with Iran proving more resilient than anticipated. Meanwhile, nuclear negotiations have stalled, and growing public disapproval is increasing political pressure on Trump.

The economic toll has reverberated across the globe. The US-Israeli war on Iran has largely cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, and although several tankers have managed to leave the Gulf recently, oil and liquefied natural gas flows are still severely constrained.

The closure has sent Brent crude soaring, peaking near $120 a barrel before settling around $100. Petrol prices have surged in more than a hundred countries, with the U.S. average climbing from just under $3 to roughly $4.50 per gallon.

A fragile ceasefire announced in April has done little to ease tensions: strikes continue, and negotiations remain stalled over Washington’s demand that Iran abandon its nuclear program. “The US president has proven that the only language he knows is the language of force,” Tehran declared, underscoring its defiance.

In a blow to the ceasefire introduced two months prior, on June 7, Israel attacked Beirut’s southern suburbs, Dahiyeh, claiming in a post on X that it was striking Hezbollah infrastructure in the Lebanese capital, without providing evidence. Although this prompted a sharp rebuke from Washington, where Trump sought to project firmness while urging restraint, escalation followed swiftly. Iran launched missiles toward Israel, the first such attack since the ceasefire began two months earlier warning that continued Israeli operations in Lebanon would invite “more crushing and regretful blows.”

Trump announced he would press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate, but overnight Israel struck back, targeting what it described as military sites. A cycle of tit-for-tat strikes has since unfolded.

In a televised statement, IRGC spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari accused Israel of violating the ceasefire and escalating operations in Lebanon, warning of harsher reprisals if attacks persist. Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin confirmed that the Israeli Air Force struck an Iranian petrochemical complex in Mahshahr and multiple air defence systems in two waves of attacks, claiming the facility produced materials linked to Iran’s missile program.

More than 1 million people have already been displaced by the renewed Israeli war on Lebanon, triggering a major refugee and humanitarian crisis.

Iran’s resilience has surprised many. Its labyrinth of underground missile bases has proven stubbornly resistant to American strikes, leaving Washington still battling for what it once secured: a nuclear cap agreement and unimpeded passage through Hormuz.

The irony is that the United States now expends considerable resources, both material and human, in pursuit of concessions already secured through prior diplomatic engagement. And the political cost is mounting. Six in ten Americans now disapprove of Trump’s prosecution of the war, and his approval rating has plunged to its lowest ebb since his return to the White House. What was intended as a show of force has become a grinding stalemate, eroding public confidence and tightening the vice of domestic pressure.

In a combative interaction with the press during his campaign in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, Trump aggressively pushed back against accusations that he had broken his pledge to keep the United States out of new foreign conflicts: “Well, well, first of all, I didn’t guarantee no war. Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?” He added, “I didn’t promise anything. I don’t like these endless wars. This is not an endless war. We’ve been doing this for three months.”

The defence stands in stark contrast to his 2024 election-night victory speech, when he declared, “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” Pressed further, Trump sought to justify his military campaigns in Venezuela and Iran by arguing they would not resemble the protracted quagmires of Iraq or Vietnam, portraying them instead as limited engagements designed to achieve swift results.

Since the Iran war began, at least 3,468 people have been reported dead inside the country, 26,500 injured, and millions displaced, with neither side willing to make substantive concessions. Tehran moved swiftly to close the Strait of Hormuz, at least to states it deemed “hostile” following the US‑Israeli offensive which commenced on February 28, while Washington imposed a counter‑blockade on vessels using Iranian ports on April 13.

Iran has insisted that any permanent peace arrangement must include its right to levy transit fees on ships passing through the strait, calibrated by vessel type, cargo, and prevailing conditions. This demand has been categorically rejected by Trump, who in late May warned Oman against cooperating with Tehran on such tolls.

The Trump administration’s broader record is one of failed diplomacy; the war in Ukraine has now entered its fifth year, Gaza remains devastated, Iran is engulfed in conflict, and southern Lebanon has been subjected to systematic depopulation under Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaigns. Trump’s repeated claims of credit for halting Operation Sindoor stand in stark contrast to its limited scope and temporary effect. His administration has consistently relied on economic pressure and the threat of punitive tariffs to compel adversarial states into ceasefires, a strategy that substitutes coercion for genuine negotiation. More fundamentally, the United States under Trump has become emblematic of a global order in which major powers and non‑state actors alike treat international law and international courts with contempt, reducing the conduct of war and peace to an increasingly anarchic enterprise. So when Trump asserts “I didn’t promise anything,” the irony is borne by the electorate that entrusts power to leaders untroubled by principle, more intent on producing market‑moving soundbites than on constructing durable frameworks for peace.

The author is a security and economic affairs analyst.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.