The telephone calls and messages exchanged between India and Bangladesh have rarely rung as consistently in nearly two years as they did between midnight of February 12 and early hours of February 13. The parliamentary victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the just-concluded national elections marks not just a political transition but open up a diplomatic recalibration not just with India but also in South Asia. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi has signalled New Delhi’s readiness to engage with the new leadership of Tarique Rahman, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge echoed a similar sentiment, saying that an inclusive, democratic and progressive Bangladesh would always have the support of Indians. The message of regional peace and stability has resonated positively in Dhaka.
While symbolism provides the much-needed oxygen to diplomacy when it is struggling to find an anchor, it also remains delicate till deeper engagements draw people and their leaders together. The continued presence of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi is sensitive, and soon questions may turn towards the extent to which she should exercise a political voice from Indian soil- especially after she dismissed the elections as a farce. At the same time, the incoming BNP leadership will have to tread carefully to delink the anti-Hasina sentiment with an anti-India feeling that might have stoked passions during the election campaign. As West Bengal and Assam head into elections in the coming months, the BNP government will also be looking towards India to separate domestic contestation with regional peace and long-term strategic interests.
The revival of the Delhi-Dhaka bonhomie goes well beyond managing security and diplomatic relations, but people ties that are built on shared economic and cultural spaces. The challenge is huge for the BNP as it inherits an economy that faces deep distress, weakened institutions and broken public confidence. Accountability mechanisms, institutional order, and restoration of law and order are as critical as restoring democratic credibility. Engagement with India will inevitably be central to Dhaka’s foreign policy.
The upside is that the substantive issues are familiar. Border killings are an emotive issue for Dhaka, equitable water sharing is a necessity, expanding trade and easing travel are essential and preserving shared cultural ties is a joint responsibility. For New Delhi, the safety and security of minorities is paramount, keeping radical and terror elements at bay is non-negotiable and territorial threats from inimical elements and cross-border insurgency are red lines for regional stability.
Senior BNP leader Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury says every country has legitimate security concerns, but foreign relations cannot be reduced solely to security calculations as it breeds suspicion, fear and misunderstanding between societies. The trust deficit, he says, must be addressed honestly and patiently. “The immediate task is to recalibrate issues that have complicated ties over time. Some can be quickly resolved, others in the medium term, and others through long-term engagement,” he says.
Back home, Tarique Rahman’s government will also have to demonstrate political will, administrative discipline and transparency to counter an emboldened opposition of the Jamaat-e-Islami and National Citizens Party that will be watching its moves carefully. Any laxity or wrong moves can be used to push the country into unrest. At the same time, the BNP needs to ensure it does not become a prisoner of its past when it was in alliance with the Jamaat between 2001 and 2006.
For now, calls of cooperation have been made between Delhi and Dhaka, widening possibilities of a meaningful dialogue, replacing resentment with engagement and showing new signs of recovery.
