Explainer: Why did Erdogan green-light Sweden's NATO membership?

The development comes after months of difficult talks and delays

NATO-SUMMIT/ERDOGAN-KRISTERSSON Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg prior to their meeting, on the eve of a NATO summit, in Vilnius, Lithuania July 10, 2023 | Reuters

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has green-lighted Sweden's bid for NATO membership. "This is good for Sweden, Sweden will become a full member of the alliance. It's good for Turkey because Turkey is a NATO ally that will benefit from a stronger NATO. And then, of course, it's good for the whole alliance," Stoltenberg said. The development comes after months of difficult talks and delays.

Erdogan gave the green light at the NATO summit in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. Erdogan had blocked Sweden's bid for NATO membership and had accused it of supporting Kurdish separatism. Last year, Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership abandoning their decades-long policies of military non-alignment, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Welcoming the development, US President Joe Biden said, "I welcome the statement issued by Türkiye, Sweden and the NATO Secretary General this evening." "I stand ready to work with President Erdogan and Türkiye on enhancing defence and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area."

Russia, so far hasn't commented on the development, but, when Finland had joined the alliance in April, The Kremlin said Russia would be forced to take "counter-measures." Russia's foreign ministry in a statement had said, "This is now a thing of the past. Finland has become one of the small members of (NATO) that doesn't decide anything, losing its special voice in international affairs. We are sure that history will judge this hasty step."

Ahead of the NATO summit, Turkey's Erdogan had stated that if the EU opened membership talks for Turkey, it would support Sweden's bid to join NATO. Erdogan has been keen to join the European Union for long now. EU member nations, however, aren't keen on letting such a large nation with a questionable human rights record join.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said, "From the Swedish side we continue to advocate closer cooperation between the Union and Turkey." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected Erdogan’s attempt to link Turkey’s EU membership aspirations to Sweden’s application to join NATO. “That’s a question that is not related to the other issue, and therefore I think this should not be seen as a related matter,” Scholz said in Berlin.

Erdogan, by letting go of its veto over letting Sweden into NATO, might be hoping that Sweden would in turn push for Turkey's inclusion in the EU. Turkey is a candidate to join the EU, but democratic backsliding during Erdogan's presidency, disputes with EU-member Cyprus and other issues have held up the country's progress toward admission in the 27-nation bloc.

Turkey had also accused Sweden of supporting the Kurdish movement. Erdogan's government had, in the past, mentioned that Stockholm needs to do more to crack down on Kurdish militants and other groups that Ankara consider threats to its national security. On a call with the US President on Sunday, Erdogan said, “Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction.”

The Swedish foreign minister, Tobias Billström, said on Monday, “No one disputes that Sweden has done what we were also expected to do, in accordance with this memorandum, including taking measures that now lead to people who have been active in the PKK (the Kurdish worker's party) being punished in Swedish courts,” the Guardian reported. On July 6, a Swedish court convicted a member of the PKK and the country extradited a PKK supporter to Turkey.

Erdogan's green-lighting Sweden's NATO membership could be viewed as him trying to soften some of Turkey’s many international disputes. Erdogan had told AP on Monday, “Türkiye has been waiting at the door of the European Union for over 50 years now, and almost all of the NATO member countries are now members of the European Union.” “I am making this call to these countries that have kept Türkiye waiting at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years.”

Then there's the Turkish demand to buy F-16 jets from the US- a move seen as being incompatible with Turkey's membership in NATO. Biden has said he supports the F-16s being sold to Turkey, a possible carrot for Turkish approval of Sweden’s membership. Greece seeks a guarantee that the F-16 jets will not be used against Athens as part of an ongoing maritime waters dispute in the Aegean Sea.

Turkey has played an important role in the Russia-Ukraine war, as a NATO leader with influence in Moscow. Erdogan helped broker and keep alive, last year's Black Sea Grain Initiative, which enables Ukraine to export agricultural products from its ports, BBC reported.

All in all, it looks like Sweden's inclusion in NATO is a win-win situation for all involved. 

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