On Saturday, the world braced for an unprecedented event; a coup that would overthrow Russia's strongman Vladimir Putin out of power. In possibly the first open challenge to his two-decade-long Presidency, the world watched in anticipation as Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his 25,000 soldiers marched to the Russian capital of Moscow.
But, a potential mutiny dissipated as immediately as it began. By Sunday morning, it was evident that Prigozhin has halted his 'advance to Moscow' after negotiations with Belarusian President and Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko.
While Prigozhin will leave Russia for Belarus - the criminal case opened against him for armed mutiny would be dropped - the over 25,000 soldiers who took part in the "march for justice" would not face any action in recognition of their service to Russia. The rebellion was aborted within hours.
But, questions remain on what awaits Prigozhin despite Putin granting him amnesty. "Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't forgive traitors," according to former CNN Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty. "Even though Putin has told Prigozhin to go to Belarus, according to the Kremlin, the Wagner chief remains a traitor," Dougherty told CNN.
"I think Putin will never ever forgive that," she added. "I think it is a real dilemma because as long as Prigozhin is acting the way he does and has some type of support, he is a threat. Regardless of where he is."
Putin himself had promised to punish those behind the armed rebellion stating that it was "a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia and the response would be "brutal".
But on Saturday, when asked about Prigozhin's whereabouts, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he had no clue about where the Wagner chief was. Peskov also said that he does not know who Prigozhin will work for after he leaves for Belarus.
The future of the Wagner Group is also uncertain. According to Major Mike Lyons (Ret.) US Army, assimilating the Wagner men with the Russian Army has its set of challenges. Peskov had stated that Wagner fighters will face no legal action for their part in the insurrection, and will instead sign contracts with Russia’s Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin had vehemently opposed this move.
"They're an independent fighting company. They were given better rations. They dressed differently. I don't think they'll be easily assimilated into the Russian military and sent back to the front there. So I think there is going to be an issue."
Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group pull out of the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to base, in the city of Rostov-on-Don | AP
He added: "Maybe some will splinter off. Maybe some will decide to defect and provide information to Ukraine. Those people are loyal to the man, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we've got a lot more questions that are not answered right now." There were already a lot of apprehensions post-Wagner's win in Bakhmut as they are designed for offensive operations rather than defensive.
That being the case, regional analysts say the incident was a chink in Putin's armour. According to Dougherty, the turmoil and chaos that transpired on the streets of Russia did not make Putin look like the strongman leader he has positioned himself to be. "Putin himself looks really weak. If I were Putin, I would be worried about those people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagner people as they leave," she said, calling it a piece of bad news for Putin.
Prigozhin’s march to Moscow itself hinted at the collapse of the institutions of the state, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The state has not been able to control its own functions. It outsourced the use of force, and more than this, it has allowed its own laws to be broken. This is a conscious loss of the state’s monopoly on the use of force," he told The Washington Post.
