Russian President Vladimir Putin will fly to Belarus on Monday, his first visit in three years, amid speculations that he might pressure his war ally and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to join the offensive against Ukraine.
Though Lukashenko had stated that he wouldn't be sending his men to Ukraine, Putin's visit to Minsk and the recent joint troop exercises have stoked fears that there are chances for further involvement of Belarusian armed forces in the operation, including on the ground. Lukashenko had made a statement on Friday that the situation was "escalating."
This also comes in the wake of Putin taking a more public role in the war by visiting his operation's HQ to sound out military commanders. Ukraine has also stated that Russia would likely have another go at Kyiv, likely in early February or March. The offensive could likely come from the east, south or even from Belarus as early as January.
"The risks are really high, even though the Belarusian leadership clearly wants to stay away from any direct military involvement in the conflict," political scientist Yauheni Preiherman, director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations, told The Wall Street Journal.
Especially since Minsk recently announced a snap military inspection on Tuesday, including increased combat readiness in the south of the country. According to Belarus Defence Ministry, the checks would encompass practically all Belarus's operational commands, but initially, units that would be the first to respond to any escalation "either on the Belarus border or within the country".
Moscow and Minsk have also set up a joint regional unit of forces in Belarus and held numerous military exercises. Three Russian warplanes and an airborne early warning and control aircraft were deployed to Belarus last week.
Though Lukashenko has given no hints that Belarus would take part in the offensive and the main topic of the meeting with Putin would be economics, he said defence and security will also be topics of the meetings.
That said, military analysts also see the manoeuvring as a ploy to make Ukraine commit forces to its north so it is more exposed to Russian assaults elsewhere.
According to Arkady Moshes, a policy analyst and researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, the meeting and the joint efforts are "calculated" to give the idea that Minsk could enter the war on Ukraine’s northern flank when Ukraine is trying to cover the east and south.
"As long as there is this joint grouping, for as long as there is at least a hypothetical possibility of these troops being used against Ukraine, Ukraine’s hands will be somewhat tied," he told The Wall Street Journal.
