Marking a possible surge in the Ukraine-Russia geopolitical situation, The Washington Post late on Friday reported US intelligence findings that Russian military personnel are deployed en masse along the borders, signalling a possible offensive into Ukraine. According to reports, Russian planning is underway for a possible military offensive against Ukraine that could begin as soon as early 2022 and would include an estimated 1,75,000 personnel. The plans call for the movement of 100 battalion tactical groups along with armour, artillery, and equipment.
What is happening in Ukraine?
The two ex-Soviet neighbours have remained locked in a tense tug-of-war after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 following the ouster of the country's Kremlin-friendly president and threw its weight behind a separatist insurgency in Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland, known as the Donbas. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting.
President Vladimir Putin had warned NATO against deploying its troops and weapons to Ukraine, saying it represented a red line for Russia and would trigger a strong response. He said that Moscow would seek Western guarantees precluding any further NATO expansion and deployment of its weapons near Russia's borders.
The US has threatened the Kremlin with the toughest sanctions yet if it launches an attack, while Russia has warned that any presence of NATO troops and weapons on Ukrainian soil would cross a red line. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told lawmakers Friday that the number of Russian troops near Ukraine and in Russian-annexed Crimea is estimated at 94,300, warning that a large-scale escalation is possible in January.
Amid the mounting tensions, Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters Friday that arrangements have been made for a Putin-Biden call in the coming days, adding that the date will be announced after Moscow and Washington finalise details.
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met face-to-face with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Stockholm to demand that Russia pulls back troops from the border with Ukraine. Lavrov retorted that the West was playing with fire by denying Russia a say in any further NATO expansion into countries of the former Soviet Union.
Ukraine has pushed to join the alliance, which holds out the promise of membership but hasn't set a a timeline. Ushakov noted that during the call with Biden Putin will raise his demand for a document that would exclude any NATO moves further east. Russia wants a legally-binding agreement that would exclude any further NATO's expansion eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that would threaten us on the territories of neighbouring countries, including Ukraine, he said.
The Kremlin aide said that Russia long has pushed for such arrangements, emphasising that they have become particularly acute amid the latest buildup of tension, adding that it simply can't continue like that.
-Inputs from agencies
