With the Taliban announcing its decision to declare an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan, the country is balanced precariously on the edge. President Ashraf Ghani has fled to Tajikistan, and the government is on the precipice of collapse. Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem told Al Jazeera TV that the war was over and that the Taliban did not want to live in isolation and the group respected women's and minorities' rights and freedom of expression within Sharia law, Naeem said. So, what fate awaits Afghanistan now?
There is an air of fear in Kabul. Many believe the Taliban will roll back two decades of gains by women and ethnic minorities while restricting the work of journalists and NGO workers. An entire generation of Afghans was raised on hopes of building a modern, democratic state dreams that seem to have melted away before the Taliban's relentless advance. Already, there are indications of a return to the harsh version of Islamist rule Afghans lived under from 1996 until 2001, when the US drove the Taliban from power after the 9/11 attacks.
What next for Afghanistan?
The government has all but collapsed, and Ghani's decision to flee has resulted in open criticism from his own cabinet colleagues who accused him of selling off the nation. Former president Hamid Karzai himself appeared in a video posted online, his three young daughters around him, saying he remains in Kabul. "We are trying to solve the issue of Afghanistan with the Taliban leadership peacefully," he said. Afghanistan's acting defense minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, didn't hold back his criticism of the fleeing president. "They tied our hands from behind and sold the country," he wrote on Twitter. "Curse Ghani and his gang."
Will there be bloodshed, a civil war of the kind that plagued Afghanistan in the 1990s? Unlikely, in the current scenario. Taliban cannot afford any open bloodshed, as this could jeopardise any faint hope of gaining legitimacy in the international fora, and militant spokesman Suhail Shaheen had already told Qatar's Al Jazeera English satellite news channel that the insurgents are awaiting a peaceful transfer of Kabul city. He had said that they won't forcibly take the city.
The ruling government, too, has shown no stomach for violence. Efforts are being made to reach a political settlement with the Islamist militants. Afghan leaders have created a coordination council to meet with the Taliban and manage the transfer of the power. The body will be lead by the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, as well as the leader of Hizb-e-Islami Gulbudin Hekmatyar, and Karzai.
A delegation from Afghanistan has reached Pakistan for further talks on the situation. Pakistan representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq, tweeted that he received the Afghan delegation at Islamabad International Airport. The group consists of leaders who were part of the different governments after the Taliban was toppled in 2001. Speaker Ulusi Jirga Mir Rehman Rehmani, former minister Salahuddin Rabbani, former vice president Mohammad Yunus Qanooni, senior leaders Ahmad Zia Massoud, Ahmad Wali Massoud, Abdul Latif Pedram, Khalid Noor and Ustad Mohammad Mohaqiq were part of the delegation.
What will Taliban do next?
That is the million dollar question. The group's major priority currently is to gain international legitimacy. Once it ascends into power, Taliban will need the world to recognise their government, a task that might not prove very easy.
The United States has already announced that it won't recognise the Taliban if it continues with human right abuses.
The United Kingdom has urged global powers and NATO against recognising Taliban as the legitimate Afghanistan government. "Nobody should bilaterally recognise the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, urging the West to work together on Afghanistan through mechanisms such as the United Nations and NATO.
However, as things stand, China, Russia and Iran could soon recognise a Taliban government. It is just a question of how soon. Pakistan has already announced that it will recognise Taliban. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said at a press conference that Pakistan has no favourites in the conflict and it is on the same page with the international community to find a political solution to the problems. "Pakistan agrees that there should be no military solution to the Afghan issue and wants all problems to be resolved through dialogue," he said. To a question about recognising the Taliban government, he said: "When the time comes, Pakistan will recognise the Taliban government in line with international consensus, ground realities, as well as Pakistan's national interests."
Russia, on its part, has stated that it will stay in Afghanistan after the Taliban promised to guarantee the safety of the Russian embassy in Kabul. Russian news agency Tass quoted spokesperson Shaheen as saying that the organisation has good relations with Russia, and a policy in general to ensure safe conditions for the functioning of the Russian and other embassies. The Kremlin's envoy on Afghanistan said on Sunday that there are no plans to evacuate the Russian embassy in Kabul.
Iran has already warmed to Taliban and is willing to do business with it. As reported by The Cradle, when asked about the Taliban’s legitimacy, spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh had said: “The Taliban are part of the future of Afghanistan. We have said that we are committed to facilitating these negotiations, and everybody’s voice should be heard.”
China has already met the Taliban, with the latter promising that China's security concerns would be kept in mind by a Taliban administration.
There are a lot of moving pieces in play, which are expected to come to rest in the coming couple of days. As of now, only one thing is clear: A new administration awaits Afghanistan.
