US-North Korea summit: More photo-ops, less substance

They exchanged warm words, but the terms agreed upon were vague and insufficient

trump-kim-walk-afp North Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un (right) walks with US President Donald Trump during a break in talks at their historic US-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore | AFP

What seasoned diplomats and observers of international politics felt when the Kim-Trump summit was over was a sense of déjà vu. North Korea had been there, and done that, at least twice in the past. In 1994, and in 2005, it had agreed to rein in its nuclear programme in return for American support to revive its economy and energy sector. But, nothing materialised. In fact, within a year of the 2005 declaration, North Korea conducted a nuclear test, triggering a wave of international sanctions.

In Singapore, on June 12, the US and North Korea concluded a deal once again. The major difference was that this time the supreme leaders of both states, Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump were present at Hotel Capella for a direct meeting. The optics were great. The two leaders met, shook hands, awkward at first, confident later on. They spent 45 minutes all by themselves, with just their interpreters. Came out of the meeting and sat down for a sumptuous working lunch. Came out again. Walked a short distance together while the world nodded in agreement. Trump even took Kim to the Beast, his official car, and allowed him to inspect it briefly. It made for great TV and brilliant visuals.

The results of the meeting, however, were not so outstanding. The only palpable and verifiable product has been a joint statement signed by Kim and Trump. And, it offered nothing path-breaking.

The US and North Korea exchanged warm words, but the terms agreed upon in the signed agreement were vague and insufficient. The two countries agreed to establish new relations in accordance with the wishes of their people; they agreed to build a lasting and stable peace regime in the Korean Peninsula; they committed for complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula; they agreed to work together to recover and repatriate the remains of the American prisoners of war, killed in the Korean war. Significantly, Trump offered to underwrite the stability and guarantee of the Kim regime.

The biggest problem with the joint statement is that it has failed to meet the minimum requirements the US had earlier said that it would require from North Korea for any peace process to go forward. Even yesterday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US would demand from Kim “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” of his nuclear programme. The joint summit, however, did not mention verifiable and irreversible rollback. It spoke about denuclearisation in general terms. When asked about it, Trump said, “I’m here for one day. The process is now going to take place.” He said US sanctions against North Korea will be lifted only after the US is satisfied with the process. “We will do it as fast as it can mechanically and physically be done,” he said of the process of denuclearisation. Trump said after talking with Kim he was sure that the North Korean leader was determined to disarm, and that he offered to destroy an engine testing site that is part of its missile programme.

The other problem with the formulation is that both countries chose not to define denuclearisation in the joint statement. For instance, both US and North Korea see denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula in starkly different terms. For the North, denuclearisation doesn't only mean it giving up its nuclear arsenal. It would also mean freeing the entire peninsula from nuclear weapons in a gradual and phased manner. It entails removing American nuclear weapons from South Korea. And, by extending the logic of disarmament of the peninsula, it would also mean the removal of American troops from South Korea. While the statement has not been explicit about this requirement, President Trump, in his press conference after the end of the summit, gave an indication of what lies in store. “I’d like to bring them home. But that’s not part of the equation right now. But, we will be stopping the war games.”

The military cooperation with the US is the bedrock of the defence doctrines of both South Korea and Japan. During the press conference, Trump mentioned that routine and regular war games with South Korea is turning out to be quite expensive and that they are quite provocative. This is a typical North Korean line. Trump readily brought into it and indicated that he would soon decide to discontinue those exercises, much to the consternation of traditional American allies. He said the exercises would be inappropriate in light of the new beginning with North Korea. Being the consummate businessman, he said it would save money as well. The American and South Korean militaries hold exercises twice a year, simulating attacks on North Korea and planning responses to the potential collapse of Kim’s regime. It involves the latest and most sophisticated American weapon systems and aircraft. The South Korean government was caught unawares, making it quite clear that such a discussion had not taken between the US and South Korea before Trump made such a crucial announcement. South Korea’s presidential office said it needed clarity on Trump’s precise meanings and intentions.

Trump has been effusive in his praise of the North Korean dictator. He called Kim talented and patriotic. He said denuclearisation was not an easy process and that it required time. Trump said Kim has already demonstrated its commitment to denuclearisation by destroying a missile engine site, Trump claimed.

He even praised Kim for ushering in a glorious new era of prosperity for his people. Trump said he trusted Kim, that he got along with him, and called him a skilled negotiator. He said he would invite Kim to the White House soon and also indicated that he was ready to travel to North Korea.

It would, however, be wrong to say that Kim got away with all that he wanted. He got a great deal without having to give away much. In that sense, the summit was a big win for him. He did not give away anything significant. He got the most powerful man in the world to fly half way across the world to meet him. He ensured that he was treated at par with the US president at each step in Singapore. And, he could expect more. Yet, Kim could be facing challenges from his own country, especially from the military, for getting too close to the US and on giving up his nuclear weapons. Just before the Singapore summit, he had replaced some of the hardliners in the military and appointed young people close to him in their places. He is also likely to be under pressure from influential neighbours like China and Russia for siding with the Americans.

About Trump…. well, the US president got a stage, watched by the entire world. And, he performed brilliantly on it. Just like the successful reality TV star that he is. Only future will tell about the diplomatic takeaways he managed from it.