If any country in postwar Europe could be called the beacon of political stability, it was Germany. Just like everything else with Germany, its political system has also been efficient, stable, orderly, mechanical and boring. That aura, however, is fading quickly, and chaos may not be too far away.
Elections to the German parliament were held last September, but almost five months later, the undisputed leader of Europe still does not have a government. Tortuous negotiations have been going on between Chancellor Angela Merkel and potential coalition partners. Merkel's negotiations with the leftist Greens and the right-wing Free Democrats had collapsed in November after which she was in talks with the Social Democrats (SDP), her principal opponents, yet a coalition partner in the last government.
Merkel's centre right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) decided to enter into coalition talks with the centre left SDP, although its leader Martin Schulz had earlier vowed that he would never join another government led by Merkel. When the election results came out, he said his party would sit in the opposition and it was one of the reasons why Merkel initially tried to join hands with the Greens and the Free Democrats―two parties with fundamentally divergent ideologies. But after those alliance talks collapsed, Schulz indicated his willingness to discuss the possibility of a grand coalition with the CDU for a third time.
ALSO READ
For grassroots workers of the SDP, this was a big letdown. But the SDP leadership drove a hard bargain with Merkel, forcing her to part with key ministries such as defence, foreign affairs, finance and labour. Schulz, realising that discontent was brewing in the party against his leadership, started secret negotiations with former labour minister Andrea Nahles so that she would replace him as party leader. After announcing Nahles as his successor, Schulz indicated that he would take over the foreign ministry in the new coalition government. The two unprecedented about-turns led to a serious backlash from the party rank and file and even the senior leadership. Martin Dulig, who heads the SPD in Saxony, asked Schulz not to join the cabinet. North-Rhine Westphalia was another major state which voiced its opposition. Such open hostility forced Schulz to relinquish his claim for the foreign ministry, pushing him to the backbenches, even after securing a great deal for his party in the coalition talks.
“With my resignation from office and decision not to participate in the government, I want to bring to an end the debate over personnel in the Social Democrats, so that the members can really concentrate on what is in the coalition government,” said Schulz on February 13.
The coalition deal now will have to be approved by a majority of SPD members by the first week of March. Before that, on April 22, a party congress will vote to confirm Nahles as the first female leader of the SDP in its history of 155 years. Till then, Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz, who is likely to become finance minister in the coalition government, will serve as interim leader.
A crisis is brewing in Merkel's CDU as well. A large section of the party is unhappy about Merkel offering unprecedented concessions to the SPD to stay in power, although it won only 20.5 per cent votes in the last elections. The main ruling party no longer holds any critical portfolio and Merkel's detractors in the party feel that only she has benefited from the deal.
“I understand the disappointment. But what was the alternative? Now we need to show that we can start with a new team,” said Merkel in a public broadcast on February 11.
Whether she can start working with a new team will become clear only after the SDP members clear the coalition deal. Even if the deal is through, Merkel will start her fourth term considerably weakened, heading a cabinet dominated by her political opponents. It could well turn out to be her last term, after dominating German politics for 12 years.
“Merkel won't remain chancellor for four years because there are so many breaking points in this coalition,” Alexander Mitsch, chairman of a CDU group called Values Union told Bloomberg after details of the deal were made public.
There is also the threat of SDP members rejecting the coalition deal. A movement called NoGroKo—no grand coalition—is already trending on social media, enjoying huge support, especially among young voters. One of the key arguments against the grand coalition is that it would make the far right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) the principal opposition party in parliament, giving it more visibility and prominent positions like the chairpersonship of the parliament's finance committee.
In case the deal is rejected, Merkel will have to opt for a minority government—which she has repeatedly said she was not very keen to—or face fresh elections. Fresh elections could pose serious problems for both CDU and SPD. In the latest opinion polls, the CDU is scoring around 27 per cent, while the SDP is reeling at 17 per cent and the AfD at 15 per cent. It was the AfD's historic performance in the September elections that ate into the CDU's vote share, and with the party improving its position further, new elections may turn out to be a tricky affair for both traditional parties. It could mark the end of the Merkel era and could even possibly usher in a new system of newer parties or groups ending up as key players, as it happened in neighbouring France.
It is, however, too early to write off Merkel. Although the absence of a clear mandate at home has weakened her international standing and has damaged her profile as the iron lady of Europe, she is a smart political operator with an uncanny skill to feel the pulse of the electorate. If her best laid plans fail to work, she might even opt for a brief period of minority government, with members from her own party, staying true to the conservative ideology, and then lead the party in the next elections, giving her one more shot at chancellorship.