India's defeat to South Africa in Ahmedabad on Sunday (February 22) has opened up T20 World Cup 2026 completely. In fact, you could even say that it has turned the tournament on its head. The group that also features Zimbabwe and West Indies now makes a complete thriller till the very end, if it wasn't already expected to be.
On Monday (February 23), Zimbabwe will face West Indies in the second Super 8s encounter from Group 1. Will the result of this game affect India's semifinal chances? The answer to this would be, YES and NO! A normal win for either of the teams wouldn't be of much damage to the defending champions but if the margin of victory is huge, then things could get worse for India.
Currently, India's net run rate is down and out at -3.800 and if it is just about the net run rate, it cannot be modified drastically over the course of two games. Hence, their best bet is to hope that it doesn't get to that criteria. Hence, a massive win for either Zimbabwe or West Indies will be a huge blow to India. Especially if the Caribbean stars end up winning the game.
Zimbabwe are no pushovers either and a win for them, regardless of the margin, could be of big trouble to India. If we go by probability, West Indies beating South Africa is higher than Zimbabwe getting past their African neighbours. In fact, Sikandar Raza's games against West Indies (in Mumbai) and South Africa (in Delhi) are both at potentially high-scoring venues.
Even the game against India is at Chepauk which isn't the same old Chepauk that was known for being slow and spin-friendly. The best-case scenario for India will be a West Indies win tonight, but it shouldn't be by a big margin. Ultimately, the defending champions need to win their two games and hope that South Africa wins their remaining two matches. Anything else will complicate matters big time.