Fail or Fly: Why the Starship V3 launch is Musk's make-or-break moment

Behind the scenes, a serious race is on between Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin to decide who will help America return to the Moon

starship-v3-aerial-view-spacex - 1 An aerial view of the Starship V3 | SpaceX

The world is about to witness history once again. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, is preparing to launch its newest and most powerful rocket ever built: the Starship V3. The tentative launch date is May 19, and this will be the 12th test flight of Starship overall.

But this is not just another rocket launch. Behind the scenes, a serious race is on between Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin to decide who will help America return to the Moon.

When SpaceX first launched Starship in April 2023, it had already become the biggest and most powerful rocket ever flown in the world. Now, the company is making it even bigger.

The new Starship V3 stands around 408 feet (124m) tall—about 5 feet taller than the earlier V2 version. It can carry around 4,050 tonnes of fuel, compared to 3,650 tonnes earlier. More fuel simply means more power and longer mission capability.

Why is this launch so important?

“SpaceX is working against time. NASA wants to use a special Moon-landing version called Starship HLS for the Artemis III mission planned next year. Artemis IV may actually land astronauts on the Moon's surface using this rocket.

But there is a problem.

"Starship has flown around the Earth before, but it has still not stayed in a stable orbit successfully. Meanwhile, Bezos's Blue Origin is moving fast with its Blue Moon MK1 lunar lander, which may attempt a Moon landing soon. So, there is a real chance NASA could pick Blue Origin instead of SpaceX for future Moon missions,” explained space analyst Girish Linganna.

The expert added that a stable orbit meant the rocket was to reach such a speed and height that it would keep circling the Earth without falling back.

“Just like the Moon keeps going around the Earth without crashing, the rocket has to move at an extremely high speed to stay up there. If it goes too slow, gravity pulls it back,” Linganna pointed out.

What's new in the Starship V3?

Most upgrades have taken place in the first-stage booster, called the Super Heavy V3.

Earlier, it had four grid fins, or wing-like parts that help guide and balance the rocket during landing. Now, there are only three, but each fin is 50 per cent bigger and stronger.

The fins have also been moved lower so they don't get damaged by heat and flames during stage separation. Their moving parts have been shifted inside the fuel tank area for better protection from extreme heat and pressure.

Another big change is the "vented interstage"—the section between the two parts of the rocket that releases hot exhaust gases during separation (a process called hot staging).

Earlier, this section was thrown away after use. Now it is built permanently into the booster itself. This means no part gets discarded, bringing SpaceX one step closer to a fully reusable rocket, which is Musk's biggest dream for future Mars missions.

There is also a redesigned fuel transfer tube almost as large as that in the first stage of the older Falcon 9 rocket. This allows all 33 engines of the booster to start together at the same time, and helps the rocket manoeuvre more smoothly during landing.

The fuel refilling challenge

In 2024, Musk said refilling fuel while in a space orbit is very important if humans want to live on other planets. But SpaceX has still not successfully transferred fuel from one spacecraft to another in orbit.

Musk believes it will need around 8 tanker launches to refill the Starship HLS in space. However, NASA and the Government Accountability Office disagree, and claim that it could need 17-19 tanker launches.

“The reason is 'boiloff', or super-cold rocket fuel slowly turning into gas because of temperature changes in space, and getting wasted. So, extra launches are needed to refill the lost fuel. Starship V3 has new electric systems to keep the fuel cold and properly behaved during long stays in space. This could be a game-changer,” observed Linganna.

Engines, pads, and Starlink upgrades

The new Raptor 3 engines will produce more thrust. Sea-level engines will give around 2,450 kiloNewtons (kN) of thrust (up from 2,255), and vacuum engines will produce nearly 2,696 kN (up from 2,527).

Flight 12 will also be the first Starship launch from the new Pad 2 at Starbase in southern Texas. The Mechazilla tower's chopstick arms, which will catch the returning booster mid-air, have also been made shorter to move faster.

Experts point out that the Starlink satellite release system—which works like a PEZ candy dispenser—has also been upgraded with new motors for smoother and faster deployment in space.

What if Flight 12 fails?

SpaceX has said that Flight 12 will be a suborbital test, meaning that the rocket will go to space, but not complete a full orbit. The main goal is to prove the new upgrades work. If it fails, it would be a major setback for Musk, because Blue Origin is steadily preparing to test its Blue Moon MK1 lunar lander later this year.

NASA chief Jared Isaacman recently told the media that the space agency will choose whichever Moon lander becomes ready first, if it helps America achieve its Moon goals. The billionaires' race is truly on.