US-Israel joint campaign against Iran: Inside the planned 3-day offensive

The United States and Israel have drawn up detailed plans for a renewed, short and intensive joint campaign against Iran. The operation is designed to last about three days and would amount to a resumption of major combat after earlier rounds of heavy strikes, according to The New York Times.

Preparations have intensified, with American and Israeli air forces conducting joint practice manoeuvres and simulated strike flights over Iraq and Syria. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth recently met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel to coordinate operational details. Netanyahu had pressed for a major offensive as early as the weekend of October 10, targeting civilian power plants along with military assets. President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed it at the last minute.

The updated target list draws on fresh intelligence and falls into three categories. The first is nuclear. Planners are focused on hardened sites, above all Pickaxe Mountain (Kooh Kolang), a deeply buried facility in central Iran. Discussions have included the use of the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the MOAB. The second is military infrastructure, with strikes meant to neutralise ballistic missile stockpiles, launch systems and drone production. The third covers electricity plants and targets associated with the regime. American officials say they wish to avoid oil refineries so as not to provoke a spike in global fuel prices.

The timeline is linked to domestic politics in both capitals. Trump has ruled out strikes before November 3, citing ongoing diplomatic talks and a wish to spare voters an energy price shock before the midterms. The military calendar points the same way. Three aircraft carrier strike groups, Marines and specialised aircraft will not be fully in position until early November, when longer nights over Iran also favour stealth operations. Netanyahu faces a tight election on October 27, with his bloc struggling to reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. He has framed the war as an imperative to "finish the job" by dismantling the Iranian regime. Analysts note that launching an offensive before the vote would be politically difficult. The threat of an imminent strike afterwards, however, could be used to pressure rivals such as Gadi Eisenkot into an emergency unity government to manage the war.

Diplomacy offers little relief. Talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar remain deadlocked. Washington demands nuclear concessions before it lifts its blockades, while Tehran demands an immediate end to the war and the blockade first. Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and hardline commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has taken an unyielding stance. Officials such as Mohsen Rezaei have said that Iran's enriched nuclear material will remain on Iranian territory. Washington, meanwhile, risks deep regional entanglement and a severe depletion of its missile interceptor stockpiles.

Tehran has signalled that its response would reach well beyond the usual targets. Guard spokespersons have warned that retaliation will expand past commercial shipping and regional military sites. Among the mechanisms named are attacks on data centres and the cutting of the seven major undersea cables in the Strait of Hormuz that carry regional internet and financial traffic. Iran has also unveiled new air defence systems, and Houthi missile strikes across the Red Sea and into Saudi Arabia continue. The Gulf is already paying. Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to shrink by more than 3 per cent, and the State Department has ordered non-emergency government personnel to leave the kingdom after Houthi drone attacks. Any renewed round would also push oil and diesel prices higher, feed inflation and disrupt trade through Hormuz.

The humanitarian toll is already visible in Yemen. Houthi blockades and fighting have displaced more than 250,000 people and left cities such as Taiz under siege.

Doubts about the plan are considerable. Experts question whether three days of bombing could bring about the collapse of the regime, which appears to be the Israeli aim, if not the American one. Weapons specialists add that a surface-detonating bomb such as the MOAB is unlikely to penetrate a site encased in granite.