Though US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, pushing the conflict into more uncertainty, the chances of the President ordering some kind of ground invasion seem to be rising, according to analysts.
This is evident from the increased troop buildup in the Middle East. According to reports, the US has deployed three aircraft carriers on the region, besides the impending arrival of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its Marine Corps task force arrive which will reach the Middle Eastern waters by the end of the month. The vessel will bring with it over 10,000 additional troops.
The military tracking carried out by the Atlantic Council revealed that more US naval forces continue to arrive in the theatre to support Operation Epic Fury, potentially including the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Several ships with mine-clearing capabilities are on their way, besides the return of USS George H.W. Bush and its accompanying strike group.
Two of the four Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships—the USS Pioneer (MCM-9) and USS Chief (MCM-14)—are reportedly en route to the Middle East. Two of four littoral combat ships equipped with mine countermeasures mission packages—the USS Tulsa and USS Canberra—are also on their way back to the Middle East, after they left their home base in Bahrain last month.
According to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a ground invasion is likely if we pay more attention to what President Trump does rather than what he says. “We have not seen him deploying significant military assets to any theatre and ending up not using them. He has often used the US military might if he has deployed it, and in this case, he has sent thousands of US troops literally to the region, and therefore, I think the odds of him pursuing the ground invasion are much higher than otherwise. There is a clear risk of mission creep here.”
Not just the US, Israeli media reports hint that Israel is also prepared for an attack together with the United States, in addition to defensive readiness. Tel Aviv is preparing for the negotiations to explode and has already approved plans and preparations to expand the target bank, pending Trump’s approval.
Iran, too, is prepared for the eventuality, going by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s statement that the Islamic regime was getting ready to deploy “new cards on the battlefield” if fighting resumed. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had also expressed confidence when asked whether the country was ready for a ground invasion.
Ashkan Hashemipour, an Iran analyst at the University of Oxford, told The Guardian that Araghchi’s statement is more than just rhetorical. “It’s because Iran, right now, seems to be doing pretty well in a war that’s essentially fought in the skies and in the sea. If it’s fought on the ground, he knows that they’ll be even stronger,” he added.
According to a report that appeared in Iranian state-backed Tasnim, Iran is fully prepared for the possibility of war resuming and has also arranged new surprises for a potential new round of conflict. “Over the past two weeks, Iran has consistently considered the likelihood of war to be high and, on that basis, has carried out certain military redeployments and prepared a new list of targets for this purpose. Accordingly, Iran is ready to create another hell for the Americans and Israelis from the very first moments of any potential war,” the report read.