Just days after the tragic US attack on the Iranian ship, IRIS Dena, which killed 87 sailors, Tehran announced on Thursday it was sending another warship towards Sri Lanka. The Iranian warship has requested an urgent port call amid fears that it could also be targeted the same way.
Amid the tensions, Iran's move to send another vessel to the Indian Ocean is being considered as Iran’s direct challenge to the Trump administration's naval blockade. Despite the deadly blow suffered by the Iranian Navy, Tehran’s decision to send another ship signals Iran’s refusal to withdraw from the Indian Ocean, even at the cost of triggering a wider geopolitical tension in the region that could involve India and Sri Lanka.
Tehran claims sending of the second ship is an exclusively humanitarian mission. But, western analysts claim the ship could be carrying intelligence equipment or weapons designed to "secure" the Iranian presence in the area thousands of kilometres from the country's coast.
While Iran's decision not to withdraw after losing its ship is a complex political move, this is also intended to break President Trump's "containment doctrine." Iran aims to demonstrate to the world that its Navy remains operational and undeterred by the technological superiority of American submarines, analysts claim.
Also, for the embattled regime, withdrawing from the Indian Ocean would be an admission that the US has succeeded in strangling its naval power. By sending another vessel immediately, Iran aims to signal to the West that if Iranian trade in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Tehran is capable of disrupting global trade from other strategic points in the heart of the ocean.
Tehran has another objective in sending the ship. It relates to the sovereignty of the countries in the region. By sending Sri Lanka a request for a port call, Iran has landed Colombo in an unprecedented trap. On the one hand, the laws of the sea and human morality oblige it to allow rescue and assistance. However, granting permission for an Iranian ship to dock or stay in its waters for an extended period could result in severe sanctions from Washington. Iran is taking advantage of this situation to try to drive a wedge between Asian countries and the American coalition, using the humanitarian crisis as a political card to establish a permanent presence in the region, according to analysts.
The incident has also transformed the Indian Ocean from a secondary arena to a central front. Iran has been building its Southern Fleet in recent years for precisely such a scenario – the ability to operate outside the Persian Gulf to bypass blockades. The current move is the biggest test of this strategy. If the US chooses to act against the second ship as well, we may see an escalation in which global shipping lanes become an open battlefield, which would shake up energy prices and global maritime security.
