Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Israel is being hailed in Tel Aviv as a significant political move that can alter the region’s geopolitical equations. While both countries will enter into deals to deepen security cooperation, which includes joint development in the ballistic missile defence sector, the visit has assumed significance for another reason: it is a message to Turkey.
Modi’s visit to Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks about forming a “hexagonal alliance” in the Middle East, comprising India, Greece, Cyprus and various Arab, African and Asian countries, to counter both a “radical Shia axis” led by Iran and an “emerging radical Sunni axis” has triggered Turkey, which is keenly watching the visit. Turkish media terms the visit “a strategic development that should be carefully monitored in terms of Turkey and the balance of power in the Middle East.”
Israeli analysts believe Modi's visit is linked to interesting regional aspects, including high tension between India and Turkey, a close ally of Pakistan and now Bangladesh. For India, a close-knit alliance with Israel and joining an alliance of moderate countries will be helpful. The goal is to strengthen the moderate axis - against the axis of the Muslim Brotherhood led by Turkey, according to Ynet News.
"This also sends a message to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - that they should not consider joining the Turkish axis," Ynet quoted a former senior member of the National Security Council.
According to Dr Lauren Dagan Amos, an expert on India's foreign and security policy from Bar Ilan University, there is tension between India and Turkey. “India has been intensifying measures against Turkey. Really hostile," she said. "India does not go to wars on its own initiative and does not enter into alliances, but it does see Turkey as an obstacle in West Asia. It understands that it needs to be countered. We were there even before Turkey, but if there is a possibility of annoying the Turks, then why not,” according to Amos.
Dr. Avner Golov, a former senior official in the National Defense Ministry, points to the importance of Modi's visit in terms of the fading hopes of normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “You see Saudi Arabia breaking the axis game in the region and getting closer to Turkey and Pakistan. Pakistan is a nuclear state, and Turkey leads a radical Sunni axis - the Muslim Brotherhood. From our perspective, this is a very bad thing because it strengthens Erdogan and hurts our standing with Washington. The Saudi and Turkish can influence Trump, and this hurts the legitimacy of normalising with Israel,” he said.
Dr Golov added, “An Indian official recently told me that when India has a conflict with Pakistan, it is not only fighting Pakistan, but also the Chinese and Turks. The Turks have become the second country that exports the most weapons to Bangladesh after China. They are starting to build supply lines to Bangladesh. For the Indians, it is similar to what happened before October 7; on their borders, they are building the next threat. The Greeks and Cypriots are also worried about Turkey, and if you connect the Emirates, you can create a regional axis here that connects India to Europe through Israel, reaching as far as Greece and Europe,” he added.
Dr. Golov said that Israel and India are talking about much more than the energy corridor - also about security cooperation in the areas of air defense, food and water security, and conveying a message to the Saudis: "Don't go to the dangerous place you're going to, and also to convey a message to Egypt and Jordan that they should not think about joining the Turkish axis."
What Turkish analysts said
According to political assessments in Ankara, the deepening military cooperation between India and Israel will affect not only the two countries but also the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
It is stated that Israel's search for new partnerships, especially in the context of Eastern Mediterranean energy geopolitics, could diversify existing regional blocs. The military coordination mechanisms that could be established along the Indian Ocean-Eastern Mediterranean axis could create a new picture for Turkey in terms of maritime security and defence industry.
Analysts said India's increase in military capacity with Israeli technology could increase competition in the global defence market in areas where Turkey operates. The formation of a new military-technological axis in the Middle East could complicate the current search for diplomatic balance. The trajectory of Turkey's relations with both Israel and India may need to be re-evaluated in light of this new strategic rapprochement.
