The long-standing containment strategy for Islamic State affiliates in northeastern Syria has begun to unravel, exposing the fragility of an arrangement that for years kept tens of thousands of alleged Islamic State members and their families in guarded camps. A Syrian government offensive earlier this year forced the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to withdraw from key territories, triggering a collapse in security at detention facilities that had come to symbolise the unfinished business of the war against the so-called caliphate. What followed was a chaotic unravelling: mass departures from camps, emergency transfers of hardened fighters by the United States, and a frantic search by foreign governments for citizens long left in limbo.
The most dramatic shift occurred at Al-Hol camp, once the largest and most notorious holding site for families linked to the Islamic State. Al-Hol has been a makeshift city in the desert, housing thousands of Syrians, Iraqis and foreign nationals. With the Syrian government in charge since January, there has been confusion and poor coordination in running the camp. In a matter of weeks, its numbers fell from around 24,000 to just a few thousand. Militants set fire to medical tents, dismantled fences, and overpowered guards, who were sometimes complicit. Smugglers allegedly ferried some out under the cover of darkness, while others simply walked away.
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Most Syrian nationals are believed to have returned to their hometowns, though the degree of screening they underwent remains unclear. Foreign nationals and committed Islamic State adherents appear to have dispersed in multiple directions, including towards Idlib and parts of Aleppo province. Some of these areas remain contested or under shifting control, raising fears that radicalised networks may regroup in environments already shaped by years of insurgency and fragmentation. Damascus has indicated that those remaining at Al-Hol, largely Iraqi nationals unable to return home immediately, would be moved to a new facility near Akhtarin in Aleppo province. Yet the sheer speed and scale of departures have alarmed analysts, who warn that years of containment have given way to an uncontrolled dispersal of potentially radicalised individuals.
Roj camp, smaller but home to many high-profile foreign nationals, remains under SDF control for now. On February 16, 2026, a group of 34 Australian women and children were released from Roj for repatriation. However, their convoy reportedly turned back within hours due to technical and procedural problems linked to coordination with Damascus. Syrian officials characterised the issue as bureaucratic and temporary, but the episode underscored how fragile and politically fraught such operations have become.
Elsewhere, some detainees have taken matters into their own hands. Belgian and Albanian women reportedly managed to leave Syria and reach Turkey with the help of smuggling networks, pressing their governments directly for travel documents. Western countries have been resisting large-scale repatriation on security and political grounds. The result, critics argue, is a disorderly scramble in which states are now trying to track citizens who have slipped beyond formal camp systems.
While family camps descended into turmoil, the United States moved swiftly to secure what it regarded as the most immediate threat: thousands of adult male Islamic State fighters held in SDF-run prisons. Fearing a repeat of past prison break attempts that once revitalised jihadist ranks, US Central Command airlifted more than 5,700 suspected fighters from Syria to Iraq over several weeks. The detainees, originating from over 60 countries, are to be interrogated and processed through Iraq’s judicial system. While the transfer reduces the risk of a mass breakout in northeastern Syria, it will be a major legal and logistical burden to Baghdad.
For years, humanitarian organisations warned that the camps represented a ticking time bomb: overcrowded, underfunded and ideologically volatile. Now, with thousands unaccounted for, intelligence agencies fear that Islamic State cells may be quietly reconstituting. Reports of attempted attacks against senior Syrian officials in the past year suggest that the group retains operational capability. The movement of committed supporters into unstable provinces could provide fertile ground for recruitment and reorganisation.
At the same time, the humanitarian dimension is acute. Women and children who have left Al-Hol are vulnerable to trafficking, exploitation and renewed radicalisation. Many lack documentation, stable housing or community support. Aid groups argue that Western governments, by delaying systematic repatriation for years, helped create the conditions for today’s disorder.
In effect, the security architecture that contained Islamic State remnants in Syria for nearly seven years has fractured. While Washington has secured thousands of male fighters through their transfer to Iraq, the dispersal of tens of thousands of women and children from Al-Hol marks a volatile new phase. It leaves the Syrian government confronting diffuse and unpredictable risks, and it confronts the international community with the consequences of long-postponed decisions about accountability, reintegration and justice.
