The future of Gulf defence: Can the GCC achieve collective security?

Geopolitical shifts and recent vulnerabilities are forcing the GCC to rethink its reliance on Western security guarantees

Anu-Sharma-Gulf-Watch

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is undergoing a significant reassessment of its approach to regional security due to geopolitical shifts and the evolving nature of national interests in terms of security guarantees provided by external players. For decades, the GCC states, namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, have relied heavily on Western military for their defence and security, particularly the United States, which formed the backbone of Gulf defence.

However, evolving global scenarios have led to apprehensions and uncertainties about  the reliability of external security providers. These concerns were further intensified following the Israeli strikes in Doha in September 2025. This clearly indicated the vulnerability of the Gulf states in terms of their defence and security. In fact, this event catalysed the urgency within the GCC to revisit the whole idea of collective security as well as reducing their overdependence on foreign powers.

The GCC’s pursuit of security, based on the concept of “collective security,” is achieved through (1) collective management, which involves broader defence partnerships among other Islamic states, and (2) endogenous security, where the focus is on building autonomous internal defence structures. Historically, the GCC experimented with the concept of collective defence mechanisms through regional organisations like Peninsula Shield Force (PSF), established in 1984 etc. However, these initiatives never evolved into a fully credible regional security architecture. Divergent threat perceptions, unequal military capabilities, and political struggles have hampered a deeper integration of these kinds of regional organisations. Despite rhetorical commitments to unity, the Gulf states have followed differing foreign policy agendas or aligned with different external powers, challenging cohesion. Contemporary developments, however, mark a shift in strategic calculations of these Gulf nations. The region is also moving gradually toward enhancing  operational capacity through acquiring advanced military technology, conducting joint defence exercises,  and increasing intelligence coordination. While it is still moderate, these steps demonstrate recognition that the old model of relying primarily on external powers is no longer sustainable.

Nevertheless, there are substantial hurdles, and GCC states continue to differ in how they perceive and prioritise threats. These conflicting outlooks further muddle the formation of a unified response mechanism to threats. Additionally, military interoperability remains limited as defence procurement across the GCC is fragmented, with states relying on different suppliers and systems, making standardisation difficult. Also, Gulf monarchies are cautious about surrendering operational authority to a supranational command structure. Furthermore, past intra-GCC crises, such as the Qatar crisis, highlight underlying mistrust that could obstruct attempts to create joint military structures.

For GCC’s collective security framework to be successful, it needs to overcome these limitations and strengthen the regional security architecture that could transform the strategic landscape of the Gulf region. It is a given that the credible collective defence system would enhance deterrence, reduce vulnerabilities and improve crisis response capabilities. Moreover, as the Gulf region becomes the loci of great power rivalry, a more unified GCC as a regional organisation could negotiate its strategic partnerships from a position of greater autonomy, balancing external relationships without being reliant on any single actor.

At the same time, building such a system will require a long-term vision, political maturity, and deep trust among GCC member states. Further, there is also the risk that a more overt collective security posture could provoke counter reactions from regional adversaries, potentially escalating rather than diffusing tensions. Thus, the GCC must navigate these reforms carefully to avoid unintended consequences.

Overall, the GCC stands at a critical inflection point. The Doha strike and broader shifts in global geopolitics have accelerated the need for strategic self-reliance. While collective security within the GCC remains a work in progress, the political momentum today is stronger than at any point in the past decade. Whether this will translate into a robust and effective regional defence architecture depends on the willingness of Gulf states to move beyond rhetoric and confront enduring structural challenges. Through this, GCC could redefine not only its internal security framework but also the broader balance of power in the region.

The author is an assistant professor at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (AIDSS), Amity University, Noida.

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