A fourth low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 12 November, intensifying into a depression within the subsequent 48 hours. However, it remains uncertain whether the system will trigger heavy northeast monsoon rainfall across Chennai and its neighbouring districts.
Though the IMD has not confirmed whether the emerging weather system over the Bay of Bengal will intensify into a cyclone, officials are closely monitoring its trajectory.
The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai, forecast that a low-pressure area is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal on November 13, with the potential for further intensification.
According to reports, on November 14, the low-pressure area developed is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a 'Well-Marked Low-Pressure Area'. It is projected to strengthen into a 'Depression' over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.
Even without cyclonic intensification, the system is expected to trigger a fresh spell of heavy rain across the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh between 14 and 16 November.
Andhra Pradesh recently managed back-to-back weather systems—Cyclone Arnab in late October and severe cyclonic storm Murasu, which crossed the coast near Ongole in early November.
IMD alert for Friday
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast rainfall across several parts of India on Friday. Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and parts of south India are likely to receive heavy showers.
Thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are also expected in isolated regions.
However, there is no significant weather activity during the week in central India and western regions.
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad on Friday, with isolated to scattered showers likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Rainfall is also expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where the rain is likely to continue till November 17.
Punjab is likely to see isolated to scattered rainfall on Friday, while rainfall activity over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas is expected to continue through November 15.
Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha weather
The IMD has not indicated any significant rainfall activity over these states in its forecast for Friday. Gangetic West Bengal may receive isolated to scattered rainfall on Thursday. No specific rainfall warning has been mentioned for Jharkhand, Bihar or Odisha for Friday.
Northeast weather forecast
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya may receive isolated to scattered rainfall on Friday. The IMD has also forecast isolated to scattered showers over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Thursday, with another spell likely on November 17. Rainfall activity over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya is also expected to return during November 15-17.
South India weather
Parts of south India are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall on Friday. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal may receive isolated to scattered showers during November 12-14, with another spell expected during November 16-17. Isolated thunderstorms and lightning are also likely over these areas on Friday. Kerala and Mahe may receive isolated to scattered rainfall until November 15. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema may see isolated to scattered rainfall between November 14 and 17.
Fishermen warning
The IMD has advised fishermen against venturing into the Andaman Sea until November 16. They have also been warned against going into some parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal during November 13-16 and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on November 15.
In the wake of the impending low-pressure area likely to form over the Bay of Bengal, the Tamil Nadu Department of Fisheries and Fishermen Welfare issued an urgent safety advisory urging all fishermen in the eastern coastal regions to return to shore by November 12 night.
