Despite several challenges, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress have committed to continuing their alliance for the upcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. However, the Congress's demand for a greater share of seats, its limited focus on Uttar Pradesh, and uncertainty over the number and identity of the constituencies from which it will contest have stalled the party's ground mobilisation.
According to a party functionary: "Congress leaders are dependent on the Samajwadi Party, whose leaders are running ground campaigns. But Congress is full of hiccups. If a candidate wants to campaign, he is first asked to ascertain whether his seat will fall to the Congress's share and whether he will get the party ticket. This has somewhat stalled Congress's mobilisation."
Samajwadi Party leaders say the Congress is a big party and has to look after its national politics as well. It has several states to focus on and strategies to formulate against the BJP at the Centre. Therefore, the level of urgency they had expected from the Congress this time is missing, even as there is an evident churn in national politics.
Samajwadi Party leaders say there has been no meeting yet. However, the Congress has shared a list of seats with the SP for consideration. A Congress source said: "Some media reports have said that the Congress has shared a list of 170 seats with the SP, but we have shared 181."
If the Congress's position is to be believed, despite its weak cadre base and having just two MLAs in the state, the party will try to negotiate for around 100 seats. Party observers suggest that while the Samajwadi Party has solid support among the 12 per cent Yadav and 19 per cent Muslim communities, it may not be able to make a mark if it contests alone. With elections increasingly becoming bipolar, it is imperative for the SP to bring more castes into its fold to mount a challenge to the BJP. And that, the Congress believes, is where it finds its relevance.
Apart from targeting Muslim voters, the Congress has also consistently tried to woo Dalits. The party believes that Mayawati, who has traditionally been the community's leader, has seen her stature diminish among the younger generation, creating an opportunity for Dalit voters to move away from the BSP and towards the Congress. Dalits account for around 21 per cent of the state's population.
"It will certainly be much easier for Dalits to vote for an SP-led alliance if the Congress is part of it. If they come out in large numbers, the election will be decided on that. Just as Dalits rallied behind the alliance in the Lok Sabha elections and changed national politics, they can change state politics this time," a Congress leader said.
According to sources in the Congress, the primary responsibility to manage UP is being given to Priyanka Gandhi, apart from Rajendra Pal Gautam looking after the administrative side of the party. Party leaders on both sides believe that once everything is clear, the cohesion between the two parties will be greater than in the last Lok Sabha elections.
"It is an alliance that has lasted for more than three years now, something that has never happened in the past. So there is intent behind this partnership. Once these pain points over seat-sharing are addressed and a common strategy is devised, both parties will ensure that the alliance sails past the magic number of 202 in the 403-member state Assembly," a Samajwadi Party leader said.
