Trust the one and only President Don Trump to do it. On a day the GOP was routed in the midterms, to post on X a baseball cap with VETO written on it. Because that is what he plans to do. The Democrats may have won in the Congress, but they do not have the two-thirds majority in the Senate needed to deter him. Therefore, President Donald Trump still holds the cards. And more so when it comes to India. Ergo, the rout at the hustings may not be very good news for India.
First, every act and order of a lame-duck President will be questioned in the US Congress. With his decisions on Iran and Israel under close scrutiny, Trump may shy out and shelve his ‘plans of action’ in these two conflict-ridden geographies. This has the strongest possibility of a receding American footprint in West Asia. And that is where Pakistan stands to gain. Already having occupied substantial diplomatic space by playing mediator in the Iran impasse, and having inked the Mecca pact and the Badr Memorandum of Understandings, strategically, Pakistan is the country that will gain the most in West Asia. And that is definitely not to India’s advantage.
Second, in more ways than one, India's foreign policy in West Asia was purposefully aligned with the US policy and hence was a replication of US strategy in the region. It was one of the main reasons New Delhi found itself in a very proximate relationship with Tel Aviv and therefore made Israel the fulcrum of India’s strategic policy in West Asia. But with the US public evidently losing patience with the involvement of the war effort in West Asia, the role of Israel has been undermined. This, therefore, has left India directionless.
Third, the poll results indicate that Americans are increasingly losing patience with the interventionist and expeditionary policies of the US State. By extension, it means an erosion in the power of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)--among the most influential and well-funded foreign policy lobby groups in the US. The sentiment may have its origin in stirring feelings of economic nationalism. In other words, tariffs and its use will not cease to be but may find increasing usage, Trump or no Trump.
Fourth, the electoral loss notwithstanding, the opposition may shout, rave and rant in the House, but Trump can still override them all with his veto powers. Moreover, on issues like trade and tariffs, Trump can ride roughshod with Section 232, Section 301 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as his powerful tools of trade. In other words, the India-US trade deal will be closed on Trumpian terms, not Congressional conditions. The same goes for the 100 per cent tariff threat on India. They will all hang over India till Trump says no.
Fifth, foreign policy is a Presidential baby. Foreign policy and diplomacy, which translate into war efforts and war funding, will continue to be run from The White House and not Capitol Hill. So the Iran conflict will still occupy the top slot on the drawing board. That means oil and energy security stays the prime problem as far as energy-deficient countries like India are concerned.
In a nutshell, the US mid-term results will contribute a lot to increasing the intensity of opposition against Trump, but the President may remain unfazed and continue to do what he does best. This is not exactly good news for New Delhi. And it may be more of a bad thing than good.
