Barely six months after taking office, the Vijay government is once again facing questions about its stability. An allegation by a TVK MLA that he was offered ₹15 crore to support a no-confidence motion has brought the focus back on the fragile legislative arithmetic behind the government's formation. It has also revived speculation about attempts by the DMK and AIADMK to exploit the ruling party's vulnerabilities and engineer a political crisis.
The allegation, made by Madurai Central MLA Musthafa, is politically explosive. He claimed that he was approached with an offer of ₹15 crore to support a move against the government and alleged that functionaries linked to both the DMK and AIADMK were involved. These claims are yet to be independently established. He also alleged that functionaries linked to the DMK and AIADMK were involved. These claims are yet to be independently established.
However, the timing is significant. The government has already faced a confidence test in the Assembly. In May, Vijay secured 144 votes in favour of his government, comfortably crossing the majority requirement of 118 in the 234-member House. The DMK staged a walkout, while a section of AIADMK legislators voted in support of the government.
TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly election, emerging as the single largest party but falling short of a majority. It subsequently secured support from the Congress, Left parties, VCK and other legislators to form the government. The AIADMK's internal divisions during the floor test also demonstrated how quickly legislative arithmetic could change.
According to highly placed sources in the AIADMK, the rebel faction led by former minister S.P. Velumani is already in talks with the TVK leadership. Sources say that a few closed door meetings by Velumani and team did not progress as AIADMK leadership moved swiftly to contain the defections. As of now, Velumani doesn’t have the support as expected. It was said that at least two-third of the existing AIADMK MLAs will go with Velumani. But only less than a dozen are ready to switch sides.
Can a no-confidence motion bring down Vijay?
Under parliamentary procedure, a no-confidence motion, if admitted and passed by a majority of members present and voting, would mean that the government has lost the confidence of the House. The opposition would need to demonstrate its numbers, not merely make allegations of discontent within TVK.
There is, however, a distinction between political speculation and an actual legislative threat. There is no established evidence that a no-confidence motion has been formally moved or that the government has lost its majority.
What does the ₹15 crore allegation mean?
Musthafa's allegation puts the spotlight on the vulnerability of legislators in a government dependent on a wider support arrangement. He has indicated that he would disclose more details about those who allegedly approached him. The allegation also raises questions about whether the opposition is attempting to engineer defections or whether the ruling party is using the charge to rally its legislators.
And this is not the first time such an allegation has come up. Earlier, Oothankarai MLA Illaiyaraja lodged a formal complaint against DMK’s former minister V. Senthil Balaji and the latter was subjected to investigation. But this time, the TVK government has not registered any formal complaint based on Mustafa’s claims. Neither, he came up with the names of those who tried to offer ₹15 crores to him.
According to sources in the corridors of power, the TVK government has time and again used this horse trading allegation as a tactic to ensure that the people sympathise with Vijay and also divert from the core issues and the failures of the government. “There is no administrative work happening at the secretariat. Things will move forward only when the government ensures stability,” a senior IAS official on conditions of anonymity told THE WEEK. He says these claims are only an attempt by the ruling party to make sure that the opposition is kept on its toes.
For Vijay, the immediate challenge is to keep his party united and reassure its allies. For the opposition DMK and the AIADMK, the opportunity lies in exposing any cracks in the ruling coalition. The irony is difficult to miss. TVK entered Fort St George promising a new political culture. Six months into office, its government finds itself confronting allegations of horse-trading, the very practice it had promised to challenge.
The question is no longer simply whether Vijay can win another floor test. It is whether he can prevent the politics of numbers from overshadowing the business of governance.
