Behind closed doors: Are Velumani and a dozen AIADMK MLAs preparing for a TVK Switch?

The twin bypoll setbacks have put the AIADMK under renewed pressure, fuelling speculation that some of its legislators could gravitate towards the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay. Former ministers S.P. Velumani and C.Ve. Shanmugam, along with at least a dozen AIADMK legislators, are likely to meet at a secluded location on Saturday evening to discuss their next course of action.

According to highly placed sources in the AIADMK, the TVK leadership has already reached out to the Velumani faction of the party and asked its members to switch sides. Sources indicate that of the 25 AIADMK MLAs who voted in favour of the TVK on May 13, six have gravitated back towards party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami. Six have already resigned and joined the TVK. Of these six MLAs, two have won the by-elections, increasing the TVK’s tally in the Assembly from 107 to 109. The remaining 13 MLAs are now set to come together for a closed-door meeting. 

However, this number could trigger anti-defection provisions, forcing the legislators to lose their MLA posts. Sources say the TVK leadership has asked Velumani to convince more AIADMK legislators to switch sides and join the TVK. He is trying to bring together at least two-thirds of the party’s 41 legislators — 28 MLAs — to strengthen the TVK-led minority government. At a press conference following the announcement of the bypoll results, TVK leader Aadhav Arjuna said, “Only two people, Palaniswami and his son Mithun, will continue to be in the AIADMK. All others are willing to come into the TVK fold under our leader Vijay.” 

The likely decision and the implications

Velumani’s next political move could mark a significant shift in Tamil Nadu politics, where the AIADMK has long relied on its regional networks, cadre base and the legacy of M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa to remain a principal challenger to the DMK. It could have far-reaching implications for the party’s organisational strength, particularly in western Tamil Nadu.

For the AIADMK, the immediate challenge is to prevent electoral disappointment from escalating into an internal crisis. The party has faced repeated questions about its leadership, its ability to recover from setbacks and its position in a political landscape being reshaped by Vijay’s entry. Velumani is a key political figure—a former minister with considerable influence in the Coimbatore region. He is closely associated with the AIADMK’s organisational network. His exit, should it happen, could have implications beyond the loss of an individual legislator, potentially weakening local networks and affecting the morale of party workers.

It remains to be seen whether intervention from Delhi will persuade Velumani to stay with the AIADMK, or whether he will go ahead with discussions, rally the legislators and move to the TVK.