After the bypoll setback, what's next for the AIADMK?

For the AIADMK, the bypoll results in Madurantakam and Dharapuram have turned a difficult post-election phase into a test of political survival. The party lost the two constituencies that it won in the April 23 assembly general election. The two women who ran under AIADMK are likely to return as candidates of actor-politician C. Joseph Vijay’s TVK to the state assembly.

Maragatham Kumaravel won Madurantakam by 19,241 votes, while P. Sathyabama secured Dharapuram by 9,471 votes. The AIADMK finished third in both constituencies. The results, apparently, underline the challenge facing general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami as he attempts to keep the party united and establish its relevance in a political landscape being reshaped by TVK.

Larger questions have emerged for the AIADMK and Edappadi Palaniswami, popularly known as EPS. The immediate challenge is to prevent these results from becoming a catalyst for further defections and renewed questions about his leadership.

Can Palaniswami contain defections?

The immediate concern for the AIADMK is whether the two victories will encourage more legislators and local functionaries to cross over to TVK. The Madurantakam and Dharapuram results are significant because both Maragatham and Sathyabama had contested the April election under AIADMK before resigning and switching parties. Their victories suggest that, in these constituencies, their personal networks and the appeal of their new political platform helped them win. However, it would be premature to conclude that the AIADMK’s traditional support base has shifted completely to the TVK.

For EPS, the challenge now is to persuade legislators and cadres that the party continues to offer a viable political platform. This might require more than disciplinary action against defectors. EPS is also forced to address the concerns of district-level organisers and reassure them that they have a meaningful role in the party’s future. For instance, when former ministers like S.P. Velumani and C. Ve. Shanmugam rebelled, EPS removed them from their respective party posts. But when they signalled a return, he did not give them back their district secretary posts.

Will the leadership question return?

The setback could also revive questions about EPS’s leadership. The AIADMK has struggled with internal disagreements and the task of rebuilding since 2016, after Jayalalithaa’s demise. Senior leaders have their own regional networks and political ambitions, making organisational unity an important concern. A bypoll defeat certainly does not translate into a leadership challenge. Yet, if further defections follow, pressure could mount for greater consultation within the party and a review of its strategy. Any visible signs of internal discord could complicate that effort.

Should the AIADMK rethink its alliances?

The party must also reassess its position in Tamil Nadu’s evolving political landscape with more than one strong player. It faces the opposition DMK on one side and the ruling TVK, which has demonstrated its ability to win constituencies on the other. In fact, in the bypolls, the AIADMK leadership failed to persuade and accommodate its long-term ally PMK to secure the dominant Vanniyar vote bank in Madurantakam.

A broader alliance could help the AIADMK consolidate the opposition votes. But here is an important question: Is the AIADMK’s strategy just opposing the DMK as usual, or is it also criticising Vijay?

Can the party rebuild from the grassroots?

The results call for a constituency-level review within the AIADMK, which it failed to do after its first loss following Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2019. The AIADMK might have to examine its booth-level performance, candidate selection, local grievances and the reasons for a broader shift in voter sentiment. More than this, the AIADMK’s rise will depend on its ability to reconnect with voters and mobilise its local network. The bypolls do not establish that the AIADMK has lost its place in Tamil Nadu politics. But it has also exposed the risks of an imminent organisational drift at a time when a new political force has started attracting huge attention.

For EPS, the task ahead is to prevent the losses in the two constituencies from becoming a wider crisis of confidence. The next course of politics will apparently determine whether the AIADMK can retain its cadres, manage internal differences and turn into a distinct political alternative in a state where the established contest is facing a new challenge.