Beyond bypolls: How TVK’s victory could reshape the course of Tamil Nadu politics?

When the counting of votes began on Friday,  Madurantakam and Dharapuram, the the two constituencies which went to bypolls on October 6, became testing grounds for a larger political question: How would Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay and his TVK convert the momentum of their Assembly election victory into a durable political force? As the early trends began to emerge, the contest in both constituencies was largely between the TVK and the AIADMK, which had won these seats in the April 23 elections.

It was a see-saw battle between the TVK and the AIADMK, while the opposition DMK remained in third place. By around 11 am, the trends began to change, with the TVK emerging as the clear frontrunner. The AIADMK fell behind, and an hour later, the DMK moved into second place in both constituencies.

In Dharapuram, TVK’s candidate P. Satyabama secured 66,841 votes, while AIADMK’s K. Banumathi, who had led in the early rounds, secured only 45,280 votes. The DMK, which was well behind in the initial trends, finished second with 57,370 votes. In Madurantakam, TVK’s Maragatham Kumaravel, an AIADMK turncoat, won with 74,048 votes, while DMK’s I. Paranthamen secured 54,008 votes, and S. Kanitha Sampath finished third with 47,450 votes.

TVK’s victory, a challenge to the Dravidian duopoly

Though the TVK has won the bypolls, the implications of the results extend beyond the two constituencies and the ballot boxes. These victories have increased TVK’s legislative strength from 107 to 109. For decades, Tamil Nadu politics has revolved around the DMK and the AIADMK, but the two parties now face a strong challenger. TVK’s victories have introduced a new variable into the state's political landscape.

Five other constituencies, including the four vacated by AIADMK legislators Dr. C. Vijayabhaskar, M.R. Vijayabhaskar, Isakki Subbaiah and S. Jayakumar, as well as the Trichy (East) constituency vacated by Vijay himself, are likely to go to by-polls once the Madras High Court lifts the stay. These elections could further increase TVK's numbers, potentially allowing it to shed the 'minority' tag and form a majority government. According to TVK insiders, the by-poll victories could also encourage fence-sitters in the AIADMK to switch to the ruling party in search of better political opportunities.

For Vijay and his TVK, therefore, the bypolls are not merely about adding numbers to their legislative strength but also about encouraging more AIADMK legislators to cross over to the ruling party.

“Already former ministers like S.P. Velumani and C. Ve. Shanmugam are in close contact with the TVK leadership. They could bring a major chunk of legislators, at least a dozen of them, into the TVK. Our legislative party is likely to split further,” said a former AIADMK minister. He said the party has clearly lost its electoral space because of the strategies adopted by its leader, Edappadi K. Palaniswami.

For the DMK, the results offer a different lesson. The party contested without the broader alliance that had accompanied its earlier electoral battles. The results suggest that the DMK has retained its core 31 per cent vote bank, despite the departure of all its allies.

Vijay and TVK's real test begins now

Vijay’s popularity has given TVK a recognisable face and an established network of supporters. But winning elections requires more than the ability to attract crowds. It demands local leadership, an organisational structure and a political message that remains relevant between elections.

The bypolls provide evidence that TVK can retain support even when its candidates have switched political affiliations. However, the next major challenge is determining whether that support can be sustained across different regions and social groups, including constituencies where Vijay’s personal appeal may not be as decisive.

The party must also demonstrate that it can translate its electoral promises into governance. Jobs, education, public services and economic opportunities will ultimately shape how voters assess the new administration.

The changing alliance arithmetic

TVK is all set to complicate alliance negotiations among smaller parties, particularly the Congress and the Left, whose influence has often depended on alliances with the two Dravidian parties, predominantly the DMK.

A new political centre of gravity could offer these parties additional options. But alliance decisions will depend on more than the immediate appeal of a bypoll victory. Seat-sharing arrangements, ideological compatibility and the ability to transfer votes between partners will remain important considerations.

For the DMK and AIADMK, the task is to prevent TVK from becoming the default alternative for voters dissatisfied with established political choices. This, of course, requires organisational renewal at every level.

However, since 1967, Tamil Nadu has witnessed several electoral reverses and surprises at every level. The DMK and AIADMK continue to command established organisational networks and distinct political identities that cannot be discounted merely because they lost elections in two constituencies.

For Vijay, however, the victories provide an opportunity to move beyond the image of a film star entering politics and establish TVK as a party that commands an independent electoral base.

The bypolls have strengthened TVK’s position and unsettled its rivals. Sustaining the momentum will require more than star power. Whether the bypoll victories mark the beginning of a lasting change in Tamil Nadu politics will depend on what Vijay and his TVK do with their newly acquired political advantage.