Why BJP is cosying up to Muslim voters in West Bengal bypolls

Nandigram, a political hotspot, is back in the spotlight with the Assembly polls scheduled for October 6. Sunday marked the final day of campaigning, with Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari leading a roadshow in support of BJP candidate Hasirani Rath. Adhikari has been making an effort to woo Muslim voters who have largely stayed away from the BJP. A section of the community has backed the party in the past, as a vote for change amid anti-incumbency against the 15-year-old Trinamool Congress (TMC) government. Though Adhikari is confident his face will be powerful enough to get a huge vote margin, the BJP is leaving nothing to chance this time. 

Hasirani Rath, BJP’s Nandigram candidate, is the mother of Chandranath Rath, a former PA of Adhikari who was gunned down by unknown assailants two days after the Assembly election results. The saffron party is attempting to cash in on the sympathy wave to garner votes.  

“There are seven booths in Nandigram where people from the minority community are in the majority. BJP workers weren’t even allowed to enter there for so long, but this time they are not letting people from other parties enter there. They want to connect with PM Modi’s double-engine development,” Adhiakri said on Sunday.   

The other constituency going to the polls is Rejinagar in Murshidabad district, a Muslim-majority seat. While the political equation may have looked very different ahead of the Assembly elections in May, the BJP now looks to consolidate its votes riding on the incumbent wave in West Bengal. 

This seat was won by Humayan Kabir, leader of the Aam Janata Unnayun Party (AJUP). Kabir, who also won from Nowada seat in the same district, later vacated Rejnagar, necessitating the bypolls. While Kabir is confident that his candidate Golam Nabi Azad will win, the BJP has high chances of winning the seat, say political analysts.

Zaad Mahmood, a Political Science professor at Presidency University,  believes voters may prefer not to go against the party in power, opting for the perceived safety of staying with the incumbent government, particularly as promises of development begin to translate into visible results.

“Right now the situation is difficult for opposition party candidates. The principal opposition Trinamool Congress(TMC), is in complete disarray. Chances of an upset are unlikely. When it comes to bypolls, why will people go against the party in power with majority seats?” Questions Prof. Mahmood. 

He argues that Muslim minority voters had earlier faced a sense of intimidation, but that the saffron party’s tone appears to have softened as the bypolls approach. In his view, the strategy seems to have shifted from “dangling the stick” to enforce discipline to “showing the carrot” through promises aimed at Muslim voters—a political approach that, he notes, is commonly adopted by opposition parties as well. Also, intimidation tactics could lead to low voter turnout, which the BJP does not want. 

Professor Maidul Islam, a political scientist at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, believes the BJP wants to reach a new segment of voters to consolidate its dominant position in Bengal. “Minorities are a sizeable section of the electorate not only in these two constituencies but also in the state. Unless the BJP wins the trust of a section of minorities, it cannot win Rejinagar. In such a situation, the PM’s slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and Sabka Vishwas becomes vacuous,” says Prof. Islam. 

The stakes may not be high for the saffron party, which is already in power. However, for opposition party candidates like Milan Pradhan of Congress, who was jailed and let out on bail, the sympathy vote is a factor that cannot be ignored. Adhikari does not just want to win the Nandigram bypolls, but also wants to ensure a good winning margin to portray his power to steer the course of the BJP’s fortunes in West Bengal.