Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) national president Chirag Paswan made his political goals clear last week, announcing that the LJP will contest the Uttar Pradesh elections, with or without the BJP. The Dalit party has already stepped up preparations at the grassroots level in the state.
Arun Bharti, the party’s in-charge for the Uttar Pradesh elections, said the party is fully prepared. “We have already held two major events in Uttar Pradesh. Chirag Paswan himself attended both events. We are part of the NDA. If we receive a respectable offer of seats from the BJP, the LJP will consider it," he suggested about a possible alliance with the BJP.
Paswan’s entry into the state, where Dalits account for over 21 per cent of the electorate, has complicated the political scene. That throws up the question: If Paswan opts to go solo, how will it affect the BJP’s chances in the polls?
While Paswan contesting the elections independently in all 403 seats may initially seem like a jolt to the ruling BJP, which is predicted to return to power under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, political analysts believe roping in the LJP could itself be the BJP’s strategy.
Taking into consideration UP’s political climate, small parties have managed to bag votes in certain areas among different caste groups. Though they may not always win seats, they manage to make an imprint, often affecting the end results. For the same reason, big parties often use these smaller parties for their benefit. “Big parties ask smaller parties to field candidates who can divide the voters to defeat their opponents. Smaller parties cut into the valuable votes of the main candidate and change the equation of victory and defeat,” political analyst Prof. Sanjay Kumar told Dainik Bhaskar.
This could be BJP’s strategy. In the 2024 Assembly elections, the BJP suffered a loss in non-Yadav OBC and Dalit votes. In Uttar Pradesh politics, the Dalit vote has long been associated with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). But, with the party on the wane, the votes have been going to the INDIA Alliance, which helped them bag 43 out of 80 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections.
By introducing Paswan in Uttar Pradesh, it attempts to cut into Dalit votes that could go to the INDIA Alliance. Chirag Paswan has succeeded in establishing a distinct identity among Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh. It is this appeal that the BJP could use against the INDI Alliance. Whether he contests the elections within the NDA or on his own, voters dissatisfied with the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections could see an alternative in Chirag Paswan, political analysts think.
